Born in rural Ohio, Howard Keylor attended a one-room country schoolhouse. He became a mem-ber of the National Honor Society when he graduated from Marietta High School.
After enlisting in the U.S. Army, Howard fought in the Pacific Theater in World War Two, during which he participated in the Battle of Okinawa as a Corporal. The 96th U.S. Army Division, which Howard trained with, had casualty rates above 50%. The incompetence and racism of the military command, the destruction of the capital city of Naha and the deliberate killings of tens of thousands of Okinawan civil-ians – a third of the population - made Howard a committed anti-imperialist, anti-militarist and anti-racist for the rest of his life.
Upon returning to the United States, Howard enrolled in the College of the Pacific, but dropped out to support Filipino agricultural workers in the 1948 asparagus strike, working with legendary labor leader Larry Itliong. He became a longshore worker in Stockton in 1953. As a member of the Communist Party, Howard and his wife, Evangeline, were attacked in the HUAC (McCarthy) hearings in San Francisco. Later, Howard transferred to ILWU Local 10. In 1971 he, along with Brothers Herb Mills, Leo Robinson and a ma-jority of Local 10’s members, opposed the proposed 1971 contract which codified the 9.43 steadyman sys-tem. This led to the longshore strike of 1971-1972, which shut down 56 West Coast ports and lasted 130 days. It was the longest strike in the ILWU’s history.
In Local 10 Brother Keylor was a member of the Militant Caucus, a class struggle rank-and-file group which published a regular newsletter, the “Longshore Militant”. He later left the Militant Caucus and pub-lished a separate newsletter on his own, the “Militant Longshoreman.” Howard advocated deliberate defi-ance of the “slave-labor” Taft-Hartley law through illegal secondary boycotts and pickets. Running on an open class-struggle program which called for breaking with the Democratic and Republican Parties, form-ing a worker’s government, expropriating the capitalists without compensation and creating a planned economy, Howard won election to the Executive Board of Local 10 for twelve years.
The Militant Caucus was involved in organizing protests and boycotts of military cargo bound for the military dictatorship in Chile in 1975 and 1978 and again in 1980 to the military dictatorship in El Sal-vador. The Caucus also participated in ILWU Local 6’s strike at KNC Glass in Union City, during which a mass picket line physically defeated police and scabs, winning a contract for a workforce composed pri-marily of Mexican-American immigrants.
In 1984, Brother Keylor made the motion, amended by Brother Leo Robinson, which led to the elev-en-day longshore boycott of South African cargo on the Nedlloyd Kimberley. In 1986, Howard again partici-pated in the Campaign Against Apartheid’s community picket line against the Nedlloyd Kemba. When Nel-son Mandela spoke at the Oakland Coliseum in 1990 after his release from prison, he credited Local 10 with re-igniting the anti-Apartheid movement in the Bay Area.
Other actions Brother Howard initiated, organized or participated in included the 1995-98 struggle of the Liverpool dockworkers; the 1999 coastwide shutdown and march of 25,000 in San Francisco to de-mand freedom for Mumia Abu-Jamal; the 2000 Charleston longshore union campaign; the 2008 May Day anti-imperialist war shutdown of all West Coast ports; the shutdown of Northern California ports in pro-test of the murder of Oscar Grant; the blockades of Israeli ships to protest the war on Gaza in 2010 and 2014; the 2011 ILWU struggle against the grain monopolies in Longview; Occupy Oakland’s march of 40,000 to the Port of Oakland, and countless other militant job actions and protests. Throughout his life, Brother Keylor always extended solidarity where it was needed. He fought racist police murders and fas-cist terror, defended abortion clinics, and fought for survivors of psychiatric abuse. Having grown up in Appalachia, he has always been an environmentalist, and helped shut down a Monsanto facility in Davis in 2012, as well as fighting pesticide use and deforestation in the East Bay.
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Hands Off Rick Toledo, Pro-Palestine Grad Student at Cal Poly Humboldt! Give Him His Electronics Back!
Don't forget to sign this sign-on letter for Toledo here:
https://stopfbi.org/news/hands-off-rick-toledo-pro-palestine-grad-student-at-cal-poly-humboldt-give-him-his-electronics-back/
Please email any statements of solidarity to:
stopfbi@gmail.com
On the night of March 19, 2026, University Police Department returned with a warrant to the apartment of Rick Toledo, Students for a Democratic Society organizer at Cal Poly Tech Humboldt, and seized his laptop, phone, and other electronics such as a camera. They attempted to force him to give up his passcodes, and he told them no. He did the right thing.
This violation of his privacy comes as part of their effort to charge him with four bogus felonies - false imprisonment, conspiracy, battery, and assault - related to the student protest on Feb 27. This is the latest in their string of acts to suppress any campus free speech for Palestine and divestment from Israel, along with suspending and firing him from his university teaching job.
We should be perfectly clear about it: there is nothing wrong with supporting any student action, including building occupations, that is taken to make demands of a university. Our rights to free speech and freedom of assembly are protected by the First Amendment, enshrined in the constitution. College protest is a long-time tradition, and it continues on today. Toledo committed no crime in supporting the student protest, and the university is determined to create lie after lie in order to demonize him.
In our view, what they really want to do is punish Toledo not for the one-day building occupation last month, but for the 9-day building occupation during the encampment movement in spring of 2024. That display of courage by the students in the name of ending university support for a genocide made it to millions of TV screens, and the state of California and university want someone to pay. Toledo is their target of choice, years later.
We demand that he not be charged of any crime, because he didn't do anything wrong. We demand that his devices be returned ASAP. Activists should learn from his example of not telling the police a single thing, including a passcode. The university and police are the criminals here for trying to scare activists out of speaking out against the university's continued financial support to Israeli apartheid. Now is not the time to suffer in silence; it’s the time to speak out. We need to condemn political repression, stand with Rick Toledo, and defend our rights to speak out for Palestine.
Don’t Charge Rick Toledo!
Give Him His Property Back!
Protesting for Palestine Is Not a Crime!
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The Trump administration is escalating its attack on Cuba, cutting off the island’s access to oil in a deliberate attempt to induce famine and mass suffering. This is collective punishment, plain and simple.
In response, we’re releasing a public Call to Conscience, already signed by influential public figures, elected officials, artists, and organizations—including 22 members of the New York City Council, Kal Penn, Mark Ruffalo, Susan Sarandon, Alice Walker, 50501, Movement for Black Lives, The People’s Forum, IFCO Pastors for Peace, ANSWER Coalition, and many others—demanding an end to this brutal policy.
The letter is open for everyone to sign. Add your name today. Cutting off energy to an island nation is not policy—it is a tactic of starvation.
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Petition to Force Amazon to Cut ICE Contracts!
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-amazon-end-contracts-with-ice/?source=group-amazon-labor-union&referrer=group-amazon-labor-
Amazon Labor Union
Over 600,000 messages have already been sent directly to Amazon board members demanding one thing: Amazon must stop fueling deportations by ending its contracts with ICE and DHS.
ICE and DHS rely on the data infrastructure provided by Amazon Web Services. Their campaign against immigrants and those who stand with them depends on the logistical, financial, and political support of companies like Amazon.
But workers and communities have real power when we act collectively. That’s why we must expose Amazon’s role in the deportation machine. Help us reach 1 million messages and force Amazon to act by signing our petition with The Labor Force today:
Tell Amazon: End contracts with ICE!
On Cyber Monday 2025, Amazon workers rallied outside of Amazon’s NYC headquarters to demand that Amazon stop fueling mass deportations through Amazon Web Services’ contracts with ICE and DHS.
ICE cannot operate without corporate backing; its campaign against immigrants and those who stand with them depends on the logistical, financial, and political support of companies like Amazon. Mega-corporations may appear untouchable, but they are not. Anti-authoritarian movements have long understood that repression is sustained by a network of institutional enablers and when those enablers are disrupted, state violence weakens. Workers and communities have real power when they act collectively. That is why we must expose Amazon’s role in the deportation machine.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) rely on Amazon Web Services (AWS) as its most commonly used cloud platform. DHS and ICE cannot wage their attack on immigrants without the critical data infrastructure that Amazon Web Services provide, allowing the agencies to collect, analyze, and store the massive amounts of data they need to do their dirty work. Without the power of AWS, ICE would not be able to track and target people at its current scale.
ICE and DHS use Amazon Web Services to collect and store massive amounts of purchased data on immigrants and their friends and family–everything from biometric data, DMV data, cellphone records, and more. And through its contracts with Palantir, DHS is able to scour regional, local, state, and federal databases and analyze and store this data on AWS. All of this information is ultimately used to target immigrants and other members of our communities.
No corporation should profit from oppression and abuse. Yet Amazon is raking in tens of millions of dollars to fuel DHS and ICE, while grossly exploiting its own workers. Can you sign our petition today, demanding that Amazon stop fueling deportations by ending its contracts with DHS and ICE, now?
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-amazon-end-contracts-with-ice/?source=group-amazon-labor-union&referrer=group-amazon-labor-
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End Texas Torture of Revolutionary Elder Xinachtli
Organization Support Letter
Letter to demand the immediate medical treatment and release of Chicano political prisoner Xinachtli (Alvaro Hernandez #00255735)
To the Texas Department of Criminal Justice,
We, the undersigned organizations, write to urge immediate action to protect the life, health, and human rights of Xinachtli (legal name Alvaro Hernandez). Xinachtli is 73-year-old Chicano community organizer from Texas who has spent 23 years in solitary confinement and 30 years incarcerated as part of a 50-year sentence. His health is now in a critical and life-threatening state and requires prompt and comprehensive medical intervention.
Since his conviction in 1997, Xinachtli has spent decades in conditions that have caused significant physical and psychological harm. As an elder in worsening health, these conditions have effectively become a de facto death sentence.
Xinachtli’s current medical condition is severe. His physical, mental, and overall well-being have declined rapidly in recent weeks. He now requires both a wheelchair and a walker, has experienced multiple falls, and is suffering from rapid weight loss. He is currently housed in the McConnell Unit infirmary, where he is receiving only palliative measures and is being denied a medical diagnosis, access to his medical records, and adequate diagnostic testing or treatment.
A virtual clinical visit with licensed medical doctor Dr. Dona Kim Murphey underscores the severity of his condition. In her report of the visit, she wrote: "Given the history of recent neck/back trauma and recurrent urinary tract infections with numbness, weakness, and bowel and bladder incontinence, I am concerned about nerve root or spinal cord injury and/or abscesses that can lead to permanent sensorimotor dysfunction."
Despite his age and visible disabilities, he remains in solitary confinement under the Security Threat Group designation as a 73-year-old. During his time in the infirmary, prison staff threw away all of his belongings and “lost” his commissary card, leaving him completely without basic necessities. He is experiencing hunger, and the lack of consistent nutrition is worsening his medical condition. McConnell Unit staff have also consistently given him incorrect forms, including forms for medical records and medical visitation, creating further barriers to care and communication.
A family visit on November 29 confirmed the seriousness of his condition. Xinachtli, who was once able to walk on his own, can no longer stand without assistance. He struggled to breathe, has lost more than 30 pounds, relied heavily on his wheelchair, and was in severe pain throughout the visit.
In light of these conditions, we, the undersigned organizations, demand that TDCJ take immediate action to save Xinachtli’s life and comply with its legal and ethical obligations.
We urge the immediate implementation of the following actions:
Immediate re-instatement of his access to commissary to buy hygiene, food, and other critical items. Immediate transfer to the TDCJ hospital in Galveston for a full medical evaluation and treatment, including complete access to his medical records and full transparency regarding all procedures. Transfer to a geriatric and medical unit that is fully accessible under the Americans with Disabilities Act. Xinachtli requests placement at the Richard P LeBlanc Unit in Beaumont, Texas. Approval of Medical Recommended Intensive Supervision, the release program for individuals with serious medical conditions and disabilities, in recognition of the severity and progression of his current health issues. Failure to act will result in the continued and foreseeable deterioration of Xinachtli’s health, amounting to state-sanctioned death. We urge TDCJ to take swift and decisive action to meet these requests and to fulfill its responsibility to safeguard his life and well-being.
We stand united in calling for immediate and decisive action. Xinachtli’s life depends on it.
Signed, Xinachtli Freedom Campaign and supporting organizations
Endorsing Organizations:
Al-Awda Houston; All African People’s Revolutionary Party; Anakbayan Houston; Anti-Imperialist Solidarity; Artists for Black Lives' Equality; Black Alliance for Peace - Solidarity Network; Columbia University Students for a Democratic Society; Community Liberation Programs; Community Powered ATX; Contra Gentrificación; Diaspora Pa’lante Collective; Down South; DSA Emerge; Entre nos kc; Fighting Racism Workshops; Frontera Water Protectors; GC Harm Reductionists; JERICHO MOVEMENT; Jericho Movement Providence; Montrose Anarchist Collective; NYC Jericho Movement; OC Focus; Palestine Solidarity TX; Partisan Defense Committee; Partido Nacional de la Raza Unida; PDX Anti-Repression; Red Star Texas; Root Cause; San Francisco Solidarity Collective; Shine White Support Team; Sunrise Columbia; UC San Diego Faculty for Justice in Palestine; Viva Palestina, EPTX; Water Justice and Technology Studio; Workshops4Gaza.
Sign the endorsement letter for your organization here:
https://cryptpad.fr/form/#/2/form/view/MiR1f+iLiRBJC7gSTyfhyxJoLIDhThxRafPatxdbMWI/
IMPORTANT LINKS TO MATERIALS FOR XINACHTLI FREEDOM CAMPAIGN:
PHONE BLAST: Your community can sign up for a 15-minute-long call shift here: bit.ly/xphoneblast
FUNDRAISER: Here is the link to Jericho's fundraiser for Xinachtli: http://givebutter.com/jerichomovement
CASE HISTORY: Learn more about Xinachtli and his case through our website: https://freealvaro.net
CONTACT INFO:
Follow us on Instagram: @freexinachtlinow
Email us:
xinachtlifreedomcampaign@protonmail.com
COALITION FOLDER:
https://drive.proton.me/urls/SP3KTC1RK4#KARGiPQVYIvR
In the folder you will find: Two pictures of Xinachtli from 2024; The latest updated graphics for the phone blast; The original TRO emergency motion filing; Maria Salazar's declaration; Dr. Murphy's report from her Dec. 9 medical visit; Letter from Amnesty International declaring Xinachtli's situation a human rights violation; Free Xinachtli zine (which gives background on him and his case); and The most recent press release detailing who Xinachtli is as well as his medical situation.
Write to:
Alvaro Hernandez CID #00255735
TDCJ-W.G. McConnell Unit
PO Box 660400
Dallas, TX 75266-0400
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Self-portrait by Kevin Cooper
Funds for Kevin Cooper
Kevin was transferred out of San Quentin and is now at a healthcare facility in Stockton. He has received some long overdue healthcare. The art program is very different from the one at San Quentin but we are hopeful that Kevin can get back to painting soon.
For 41 years, an innocent man has been on death row in California.
Kevin Cooper was wrongfully convicted of the brutal 1983 murders of the Ryen family and houseguest. The case has a long history of police and prosecutorial misconduct, evidence tampering, and numerous constitutional violations including many incidences of the prosecution withholding evidence of innocence from the defense. You can learn more here .
In December 2018 Gov. Brown ordered limited DNA testing and in February 2019, Gov. Newsom ordered additional DNA testing. Meanwhile, Kevin remains on Death Row at San Quentin Prison.
The funds raised will be used to help Kevin purchase art supplies for his paintings . Additionally, being in prison is expensive, and this money would help Kevin pay for stamps, books, paper, toiletries, supplies, supplementary food, printing materials to educate the public about his case and/or video calls.
Please help ease the daily struggle of an innocent man on death row!
An immediate act of solidarity we can all do right now is to write to Kevin and assure him of our continuing support in his fight for justice. Here’s his address:
Kevin Cooper #C65304
Cell 107, Unit E1C
California Health Care Facility, Stockton (CHCF)
P.O. Box 213040
Stockton, CA 95213
www.freekevincooper.org
Call California Governor Newsom:
1-(916) 445-2841
Press 1 for English or 2 for Spanish,
press 6 to speak with a representative and
wait for someone to answer
(Monday-Friday, 9:00 A.M. to 5:00 P.M. PST—12:00 P.M. to 8:00 P.M. EST)
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Dr. Atler Still Needs Our Help!
Please sign the petition today!
https://www.change.org/p/texas-state-university-give-tom-alter-his-job-back
What you can do to support:
—Donate to help Tom Alter and his family with living and legal expenses: https://gofund.me/27c72f26d
—Sign and share this petition demanding Tom Alter be given his job back: https://www.change.org/p/texas-state-university-give-tom-alter-his-job-back
—Write to and call the President and Provost at Texas State University demanding that Tom Alter be given his job back:
President Kelly Damphousse: president@txstate.edu
President’s Office Phone: 512-245-2121
Provost Pranesh Aswath: xrk25@txstate.edu
Provost Office Phone: 512-245-2205
For more information about the reason for the firing of Dr. Tom Alter, read:
"Fired for Advocating Socialism: Professor Tom Alter Speaks Out"
Ashley Smith Interviews Dr. Tom Alter
—CounterPunch, September 24, 2025
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 Russia Confirms Jailing of Antiwar Leader Boris Kagarlitsky In a secret trial on June 5, 2024, the Russian Supreme Court’s Military Chamber confirmed a sentence of five years in a penal colony for left-wing sociologist and online journalist Boris Kagarlitsky. His crime? “Justifying terrorism” — a sham charge used to silence opponents of Putin’s war on Ukraine. The court disregarded a plea for freedom sent by thirty-seven international luminaries. Kagarlitsky, a leading Marxist thinker in Russia’s post-Soviet period, recently addressed socialists who won’t criticize Putin: “To my Western colleagues, who…call for an understanding of Putin and his regime, I would like to ask a very simple question. [Would] you want to live in a country where there is no free press or independent courts? In a country where the police have the right to break into your house without a warrant? …In a country which…broadcasts appeals on TV to destroy Paris, London, Warsaw, with a nuclear strike?” Thousands of antiwar critics have been forced to flee Russia or are behind bars, swept up in Putin’s vicious crackdown on dissidents. Opposition to the war is consistently highest among the poorest workers. Recently, RusNews journalists Roman Ivanov and Maria Ponomarenko were sentenced to seven, and six years respectively, for reporting the military’s brutal assault on Ukraine. A massive global solidarity campaign that garnered support from thousands was launched at Kagarlitsky’s arrest. Now, it has been revived. This internationalism will bolster the repressed Russian left and Ukrainian resistance to Putin’s imperialism. To sign the online petition at freeboris.info —Freedom Socialist Party, August 2024 https://socialism.com/fs-article/russia-jails-prominent-antiwar-leader-boris-kagarlitsky/#:~:text=In%20a%20secret%20trial%20on,of%20Putin's%20war%20on%20Ukraine. Petition in Support of Boris KagarlitskyWe, the undersigned, were deeply shocked to learn that on February 13 the leading Russian socialist intellectual and antiwar activist Dr. Boris Kagarlitsky (65) was sentenced to five years in prison. Dr. Kagarlitsky was arrested on the absurd charge of 'justifying terrorism' in July last year. After a global campaign reflecting his worldwide reputation as a writer and critic of capitalism and imperialism, his trial ended on December 12 with a guilty verdict and a fine of 609,000 roubles. The prosecution then appealed against the fine as 'unjust due to its excessive leniency' and claimed falsely that Dr. Kagarlitsky was unable to pay the fine and had failed to cooperate with the court. In fact, he had paid the fine in full and provided the court with everything it requested. On February 13 a military court of appeal sent him to prison for five years and banned him from running a website for two years after his release. The reversal of the original court decision is a deliberate insult to the many thousands of activists, academics, and artists around the world who respect Dr. Kagarlitsky and took part in the global campaign for his release. The section of Russian law used against Dr. Kagarlitsky effectively prohibits free expression. The decision to replace the fine with imprisonment was made under a completely trumped-up pretext. Undoubtedly, the court's action represents an attempt to silence criticism in the Russian Federation of the government's war in Ukraine, which is turning the country into a prison. The sham trial of Dr. Kagarlitsky is the latest in a wave of brutal repression against the left-wing movements in Russia. Organizations that have consistently criticized imperialism, Western and otherwise, are now under direct attack, many of them banned. Dozens of activists are already serving long terms simply because they disagree with the policies of the Russian government and have the courage to speak up. Many of them are tortured and subjected to life-threatening conditions in Russian penal colonies, deprived of basic medical care. Left-wing politicians are forced to flee Russia, facing criminal charges. International trade unions such as IndustriALL and the International Transport Federation are banned and any contact with them will result in long prison sentences. There is a clear reason for this crackdown on the Russian left. The heavy toll of the war gives rise to growing discontent among the mass of working people. The poor pay for this massacre with their lives and wellbeing, and opposition to war is consistently highest among the poorest. The left has the message and resolve to expose the connection between imperialist war and human suffering. Dr. Kagarlitsky has responded to the court's outrageous decision with calm and dignity: “We just need to live a little longer and survive this dark period for our country,” he said. Russia is nearing a period of radical change and upheaval, and freedom for Dr. Kagarlitsky and other activists is a condition for these changes to take a progressive course. We demand that Boris Kagarlitsky and all other antiwar prisoners be released immediately and unconditionally. We also call on the auth *..........*..........*..........*..........*..........*..........*..........* *..........*..........*..........*..........*..........*..........*..........* |
Mumia Abu-Jamal is Innocent!
FREE HIM NOW!
Write to Mumia at:
Smart Communications/PADOC
Mumia Abu-Jamal #AM-8335
SCI Mahanoy
P.O. Box 33028
St. Petersburg, FL 33733
Join the Fight for Mumia's Life
Since September, Mumia Abu-Jamal's health has been declining at a concerning rate. He has lost weight, is anemic, has high blood pressure and an extreme flair up of his psoriasis, and his hair has fallen out. In April 2021 Mumia underwent open heart surgery. Since then, he has been denied cardiac rehabilitation care including a healthy diet and exercise.
He still needs more complicated treatment from a retinal specialist for his right eye if his eyesight is to be saved:
Donate to Mumia Abu-Jamal's Emergency Legal and Medical
Defense Fund
Mumia has instructed PrisonRadio to set up this fund. Gifts donated here are designated for the Mumia Abu-Jamal Medical and Legal Defense Fund. If you are writing a check or making a donation in another way, note this in the memo line.
Send to:
Mumia Medical and Legal Fund c/o Prison Radio
P.O. Box 411074, San Francisco, CA 94103
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Resources for Resisting Federal Repression
https://www.nlg.org/federalrepressionresources/
Since June of 2020, activists have been subjected to an increasingly aggressive crackdown on protests by federal law enforcement. The federal response to the movement for Black Lives has included federal criminal charges for activists, door knocks by federal law enforcement agents, and increased use of federal troops to violently police protests.
The NLG National Office is releasing this resource page for activists who are resisting federal repression. It includes a link to our emergency hotline numbers, as well as our library of Know-Your-Rights materials, our recent federal repression webinar, and a list of some of our recommended resources for activists. We will continue to update this page.
Please visit the NLG Mass Defense Program page for general protest-related legal support hotlines run by NLG chapters.
Emergency Hotlines
If you are contacted by federal law enforcement, you should exercise all of your rights. It is always advisable to speak to an attorney before responding to federal authorities.
State and Local Hotlines
If you have been contacted by the FBI or other federal law enforcement, in one of the following areas, you may be able to get help or information from one of these local NLG hotlines for:
Portland, Oregon: (833) 680-1312
San Francisco, California: (415) 285-1041 or fbi_hotline@nlgsf.org
Seattle, Washington: (206) 658-7963
National Hotline
If you are located in an area with no hotline, you can call the following number:
National NLG Federal Defense Hotline: (212) 679-2811
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Articles
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1) Emperor Penguins Are Now Endangered, a New Assessment Finds
Populations are declining as climate change causes the sea ice the birds need for survival to retreat, according to researchers.
By Rachel Nuwer, April 9, 2026
Emperor penguins near the Dumont d’Urville Antarctic research station in 2012. Credit...Martin Passingham/Reuters
Emperor penguins, the world’s largest and perhaps most recognizable penguin species, have joined the list of wildlife endangered by global warming, the International Union for Conservation of Nature announced on Thursday.
In an update of its Red List, a comprehensive and authoritative listing of global species based on their extinction risk, the group also said that Antarctic fur seals had moved into the endangered category and that southern elephant seals had moved to vulnerable.
In the case of penguins and fur seals, the changes were largely driven by shifts in sea ice levels and food availability linked to global warming, researchers said.
For species in the Antarctic region, “this is the first clear evidence of climate change’s influence pop up in a big way,” said Kit Kovacs, a marine mammal researcher at the Norwegian Polar Institute who leads the I.U.C.N. seal project.
Here’s what to know about the updates.
Emperor Penguins
Scientists know of 66 emperor breeding colonies, exclusively in Antarctica, many of which were only recently revealed by springtime satellite imagery. Images taken between 2009 and 2018 showed an overall population decline of nearly 10 percent. Another recent study suggested that, between 2020 and 2024, seven colonies in the Ross Sea had declined by 32 percent.
“Looking further into the future, various studies predict quasi-extinction in many of the colonies,” said Philip Trathan, an emeritus marine ecologist at the British Antarctic Survey who assisted with the I.U.C.N. penguin assessment.
The penguin declines largely boil down to sea ice, which has hit record-low levels in the past few years. Emperor penguins rely on sea ice for breeding and to avoid water during their annual molt, when they essentially loose waterproofing and insulation. It also forms habitat for their aquatic prey.
The birds will not be able to survive without sea ice, which in turn depends on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, something that needs to happen “urgently,” Dr. Trathan said. In the meantime, he added, protecting the places where emperor penguins breed, molt and forage could help sustain the species.
Xiao Cheng, director of the Polar Research Center at Sun Yat-sen University in China, who was not involved in the I.U.C.N. assessment, agreed that “much evidence suggests that emperor penguins are experiencing increasing pressure.”
He added, though, that it’s premature to assume the fate of the species is sealed based on relatively short-term satellite observations. “While strengthening conservation actions is important, it is also important to carefully evaluate and maintain confidence in the species’ resilience,” Dr. Cheng said.
Emperor penguins are capable of diving to 1,750 feet in search of squid, fish and krill. Males handle egg incubation during the continent’s long, dark winter, forgoing food as they huddle together to conserve heat. Before Thursday’s update, they had been in the near-threatened category.
Antarctic Fur Seals
Once killed by the millions for their soft pelts, Antarctic fur seals quickly rebounded to a conservation status of least concern after a hunting ban was adopted in 1972.
Since 2014, however, populations have plummeted to fewer than one million adults from an estimated two million. The magnitude and speed of this decline was surprising, Dr. Kovacs said.
The main reason seems to be sharp shifts in the availability of krill, especially around South Georgia. As waters warm, krill are moving deeper and farther offshore in search of colder temperatures.
Disruption of the krill supply is catastrophic for breeding female seals, which depend on ample nearby supplies of the crustaceans to rear their pups, according to Jaume Forcada, a marine mammal scientist at the British Antarctic Survey who contributed to the updated assessment.
Krill distribution shifts are “unlikely to be reversible,” Dr. Forcada said, unless the world curtails greenhouse gases soon.
A number of other factors might also hasten the decline of fur seals, he added, including increasing levels of commercial krill fishing, competition for krill from recovering whale populations, plastic and other pollution, and disease outbreaks.
“However, there are no good data to assess these threats and assigning causality remains a challenge,” Dr. Forcada said.
Southern Elephant Seals
Southern elephant seals are 8,800-pound behemoths that take their name from the inflatable, trunk-like proboscis that males use like a megaphone in their competition for breeding privileges with large harems of females. But this gregarious lifestyle made the species, previously listed under least concern, especially susceptible to avian influenza, Dr. Kovacs said.
Since the virus first emerged in southern elephant seals in 2023, it has caused “huge and profound” losses to three of four major populations, she said, resulting in overall declines of more than 30 percent.
The high mortality might have been exacerbated by climate change, Dr. Kovacs said. In general, viruses and other pathogens do not proliferate well in the cold, so animals that live in polar regions have historically enjoyed some protection. As temperatures warm, though, diseases are finding their way to wildlife populations with no prior immunity, she said.
The situation underlies the cumulative nature of threats to wildlife, according to Dr. Kovacs.
“Everyone talks about one issue at a time,” she said. “But many are impinging on animals at the same time, and many are related to climate change.”
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2) F.B.I. Arrests Ex-Army Employee Who Detailed Harassment to Journalist
Courtney Williams, who worked at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, was accused of leaking classified information to a reporter.
By Jonathan Wolfe, April 9, 2026
Fort Bragg in 2025. Courtney Williams worked in a support role there from 2010 to 2016. Kenny Holston/The New York Times
A former U.S. Army employee was charged on Wednesday with leaking classified information to a journalist who published some of her disclosures in a book and article, federal prosecutors said.
The employee, Courtney Williams, 40, worked in a support role for the Special Operations unit Delta Force at Fort Bragg in North Carolina from 2010 to 2016, the Justice Department said. In a book and article published by a journalist last year, she described experiencing sexual harassment and gender discrimination during her time there.
The F.B.I. arrested her on Tuesday and she was indicted by a grand jury the following day on a charge of “alleged transmission of classified national defense information” to a journalist, the department said in a statement.
She faces a punishment of up to 10 years in prison.
Ms. Williams held top secret security clearance while working for the Army, according to a criminal complaint filed in U.S. District Court. Between 2022 and 2025, after she had left the Army, she communicated with a journalist who published an article and book that included experiences from her time working with the military, including classified information, according to prosecutors, who did not name the journalist.
Ms. Williams was featured prominently in a Politico Magazine article by Seth Harp published last August that detailed alleged misconduct in Delta Force. The article was adapted from Mr. Harp’s book, “The Fort Bragg Cartel,” which was published the same month and examined unsolved murders and other problems at the military base.
The criminal complaint details phone calls and text messages that Ms. Williams exchanged with the journalist and states that she “revealed classified national defense information.” She also mailed documents, photographs, notes and other materials to the journalist that likely contained classified information on a thumb drive, the complaint said.
In the article, Ms. Williams was quoted as speaking about sexual harassment and gender discrimination in the unit, describing some of her time there as a “living hell.” In one instance, she said she was asked to undergo a dress code check and was told to turn around and bend over in front of senior officers to “to assess whether her underwear could be seen through the fabric.”
In announcing the charges against Ms. Williams, federal officials described her behavior as putting the United States and its soldiers at risk, and suggested that she revealed “tradecraft, tactics and techniques” used by Delta Force, without providing further details.
The F.B.I. director, Kash Patel, congratulated his colleagues on the arrest of Ms. Williams in a social media post on Wednesday.
“Let this serve as a message to any would-be leakers: We’re working these cases, and we’re making arrests,” he wrote. “This F.B.I. will not tolerate those who seek to betray our country and put Americans in harm’s way.”
Mr. Harp, the journalist, strongly condemned the charges in a statement on social media. He called Ms. Williams a “courageous whistle-blower” who helped expose “rampant gender discrimination and sexual harassment” in Delta Force.
He accused the Justice Department of prosecuting Ms. Williams to retaliate against her for her critical comments about the unit, adding that officials had not detailed what specific classified national defense information she had leaked.
Ms. Williams was appointed a federal public defender, according to court documents, which did not include a lawyer’s name.
The Justice Department and Mr. Harp did not immediately respond to requests for comment early Thursday.
Ms. Williams was being detained until a preliminary hearing set for April 13, according to court documents.
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3) The Oil Shock Is Worse Than You Think
The war with Iran is preventing huge amounts of oil from flowing out of the Persian Gulf, but the prices that many people track don’t fully capture the scale of the disruption.
By Rebecca F. Elliott, April 10, 2026
Google the price of oil, and you’ll most likely find two widely quoted prices for the commodity, one in the United States, the other in Europe.
These prices, which are constantly changing on electronic markets, suggest that although the war with Iran has made energy a lot more expensive, things are not nearly as bad as they were four years ago, after Russia invaded Ukraine.
But if you needed an actual tanker full of oil — and quickly — it would cost you dearly.
On Tuesday, before President Trump said the United States and Iran had reached a cease-fire agreement, a commonly cited price of Brent oil, the European one, was about $109 a barrel. That was well below highs reached in 2022, when that price briefly topped $130, without adjusting for inflation.
But in the market where energy companies buy and sell liquid oil transported on ships, the price was almost $145 a barrel, a record and more than double the price before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, according to Argus Media, a company that tracks commodity prices.
The reason the two prices were so different is that the first, more commonly cited price is the futures price. It’s a financial instrument that reflects how valuable traders think oil will be in a month or two, and — in simplest terms — is not unlike a stock price. The second is often called the spot price, and it is tied to the delivery of many tons of crude oil, which a refinery can turn into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices no longer accurately reflect the extent of the supply shock that the world is experiencing.
“The futures market is not representing the on-the-ground and on-the-water reality of oil at all,” said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, an Australian financial services firm. “It’s quite broken.”
Mike Wirth, the chief executive of Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, expressed similar concerns last month at a Houston energy conference, CERAWeek by S&P Global.
“Physical prices and physical supplies would reflect a tighter market than I think the forward curve reflects,” Mr. Wirth said, referring to the futures market.
Spot and futures prices often diverge during big market disruptions, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International upheavals magnify the difference between the value of oil today and two months from now.
But the spread between the two prices in recent days dwarfs that of any other period in the past 20 years, Argus data show. Even energy analysts have struggled to explain why that gap is so large this time.
“It is a mystery,” Mr. Dwivedi said.
What is clear is that the war with Iran has upended oil markets in profound ways. Estimates indicate that companies have turned off 10 percent or more of the world’s oil supply since the war started because they cannot safely get tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula.
Prices have soared around the world. And some countries in Asia — which depends heavily on fuel from the Persian Gulf — have even faced shortages. Gas stations in Vietnam and Thailand turned away customers, saying they had no fuel; Sri Lanka declared every Wednesday a public holiday; and many other countries have mandated or encouraged remote work.
The two-week cease-fire with Iran sent oil prices plunging in the hours after Mr. Trump announced the deal, but very little has changed on the ground. Shipping companies remain wary of sending vessels through the strait. That means that a substantial portion of the world’s oil is still trapped in the Persian Gulf.
“The physical price just tells you how tight everything is right now,” said Jason Gabelman, an energy analyst at the investment bank TD Cowen.
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4) A Record Jump in U.S. Gasoline Prices Is Squeezing Consumers
The cost at the pump made its biggest monthly percentage increase in decades amid lingering tensions over the war in Iran.
By Emmett Lindner, April 10, 2026
The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.64 in March, up from $2.91 in February. Credit...Gabriel V. Cárdenas for The New York Times
The price of regular gasoline in the United States jumped 25 percent between February and March, the highest monthly percentage increase on record, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. The surge highlighted how quickly the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, now in its sixth week, has echoed through daily life across the world.
The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.64 in March, up from $2.91 in February. That percentage increase was higher than when prices topped $5 a gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and was the biggest monthly percentage increase since the E.I.A. began tracking the data in 1990.
“We forecast retail gasoline prices to peak at a monthly average of close to $4.30 per gallon” in April, the administration said this week in an outlook note. It also forecast an average cost of $3.70 for the year.
Gasoline prices follow the cost of crude oil, which has risen nearly 50 percent since the start of the war. But there is usually at least a slight delay before what people are paying at the pump noticeably rises. Now, unlike during the Ukraine war, there is a more tangible threat to oil supplies.
After a fragile cease-fire agreement between the United States and Iran this week, it’s unclear how easily ships will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway south of Iran through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply travels.
“What we’re seeing today is unusual,” said Phillip Braun, a finance professor at Northwestern University. “The degree of risk that oil companies perceive today is much higher than from before.”
And higher gasoline costs could be chipping away at American wallets alongside more pronounced economic headwinds.
Sustained higher oil and gas prices bring a greater risk of inflation. What also separates the conflict in the Middle East from the oil shocks of the 1970s, after which the United States went into recessions, has to do with the actions of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Braun said.
“Today, the Fed is being much more conservative — it’s not accommodating what the oil prices are doing,” Mr. Braun said. “They’re keeping interest rates up. That means there might be a bigger negative impact that we see today in the economy than we did in the 1970s.”
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5) Trump Is Turning America Into a Psychotic State
By Jonathan Rauch and Peter Wehner, April 10, 2026
Mr. Rauch is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Mr. Wehner, a senior fellow at the Trinity Forum, is a contributing Opinion writer.
Pete Gamlen
It has been clear for a long time that President Trump is a person with a disorganized mind and a disordered personality. What the past few months and especially the past few weeks have brought into focus is how the president’s pathologies have cascaded downward and outward through his administration. They have become institutionalized. The reason the administration so often does not act coherently is because it cannot. The world faces something new and baffling and frightening in Mr. Trump’s second term: a psychotic state.
This does not mean that every individual in the government is emotionally or psychologically unstable. Nor is it a clinical diagnosis of the president himself. The issue is that the administration as a whole lacks a consistent attachment to reality and the ability to organize its thinking coherently. Mr. Trump’s grandiosity, his impulsivity, inconsistency and his outright breaks with reality have become state policy.
In that respect, Mr. Trump’s second term is different from his first. In 2020, he could confabulate about the election result or babble about treating Covid with injections of disinfectant. But he could not translate his fantasies into reality — at least not usually. In the second term, by contrast, institutional psychosis has been on display since Day 1.
It is the Iran war that has most vividly demonstrated the scope of the problem. In this conflict, the most potent antagonist has been the administration’s own incoherence.
The Trump administration chose to wage a war without deciding on its aims, mapping out a strategy, planning for contingencies or even being able to explain itself. The goal was regime change — until it wasn’t. The demand was unconditional surrender — until it wasn’t. Deadlines were issued and then erased. Threats of total destruction were made and then pulled back. Iran’s nuclear program was a casus belli in February despite that fact that we were told by Mr. Trump that it had been “obliterated” last June. The president called for an international coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz, then said the United States could go it alone, and then said the waterway would somehow “open itself.” He claimed that the United States had already won the war, that the war would end soon, and that the war would end “when I feel it … in my bones.” As a headline in The Times put it, the president’s position on Iran “can change by the sentence.”
Even as the bombs fell, the administration, concerned about gasoline prices, waived sanctions on some Iranian oil, “giving Iran’s war effort against the U.S. a boost,” as The Washington Post reported. Area experts were shocked when the administration proved unprepared for Iran’s partial closing of the Strait of Hormuz, a tactic experts had anticipated for decades. The administration might have been readier had it not chopped back the State Department’s Middle East desk, gotten rid of its oil and gas experts and eliminated its dedicated Iran office. The administration handicapped its own National Security Council by firing staff members, some at the behest of a conspiracy-minded internet personality, and undercutting its independence — not a good idea before launching a war. Trump’s social media posts seemed self-contradictory and borderline demented.
Incoherence is not incidental in this administration; it is the administration’s modus operandi. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency caused chaos in federal agencies by sacking, and then sometimes rehiring, employees without any evident rationale — and without making a serious dent in government spending. Mr. Trump flipped from “no more wars” to waging war (in Iran) and using and threatening military force (Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba), seemingly every other month. The policy toward Ukraine was simultaneously supportive and not supportive. Tariffs went up and down and on and off, reflecting the president’s whims. In February, he bragged that gas prices were low, then in March that they were high.
This is far from normal.
Normal administrations set up policy processes that assemble evidence from varied sources, collate viewpoints and priorities across multiple agencies and ensure rational deliberation before options reach the president. One of us served in three Republican administrations and participated as interagency reviews took place in a cabinet department, in an executive agency and in the White House itself. A single line in a presidential foreign policy statement might require the input of 20 or more people from the Defense Department, the State Department, the C.I.A., the Department of the Treasury and more.
The policy review process can be tortuous and sometimes mistaken. It can’t substitute for wise presidential judgment. But it is vital. It asks hard questions and assesses competing arguments. It ensures expert input in specific domains, anticipates how policies may ramify and prepares for contingencies.
In all those ways, the systematic review of policy amounts to an institutional mind: a cognitive process that organizes the government’s deliberations to keep them rational and anchored in reality. You might think of it as the government’s equivalent of the prefrontal cortex, the part of the brain responsible for high-level executive functions such as impulse control and long-term planning. In Mr. Trump’s second term, those functions still exist, but they can be disrupted, circumvented or just plain abandoned at any moment on the say-so of the president and his senior officials. In that respect, the Trump administration is mindless.
Policy judgments should be made by the president, not by subordinate agencies and experts. But irrational processes produce inexplicable outcomes, and that is what we have seen, again and again. The only rhyme or reason is the principle that Mr. Trump himself proclaimed when explaining his policy toward Cuba: “I think I can do anything I want with it.” That is the principle by which his administration governs.
When an agency goes haywire, the administration might rush to stabilize it — for example, at the Department of Homeland Security, where chaos and brutality led to the killing of two American citizens right on the street in Minneapolis. But until a coherent policy process is restored under a chief executive who understands the need for it, we should expect geysers of mindlessness to keep erupting in unforeseeable ways and places.
Understandably, scholars, journalists and politicians have attempted to fit Trump II into any number of at least somewhat rational frameworks: populism, isolationism, unilateralism, nationalism, transactionalism, the “madman” theory, spheres of influence, imperialism and more. Some of those frameworks can help illuminate the president and the people around him. As one of us has argued, Mr. Trump is a patrimonialist — a leader who believes the state is his personal property. And both of us have said that his administration displays hallmarks of fascism. Ultimately, however, institutional psychosis defies rational categories. Predicting this administration’s behavior is impossible under any framework. And if the president becomes more desperate as he grows more unpopular, the danger only increases.
Which leaves everyone wondering: What are the implications if the administration of the world’s most powerful country is chaotic in its thinking, unpredictable in its actions and not reliably in touch with reality? It’s impossible to know. America and its allies have dealt with a lot of presidential imperfections and failings, but there is no precedent, or even category, for the institutional psychosis displayed by the second Trump administration. Precisely because the psychotic state is so unpredictable, setting up systems to manage it will not work.
This puts the country and its allies in the precarious but not hopeless position of over-relying on the rational guardrails that remain. Some of these guardrails are within the executive branch: in the federal bureaucracies and the military services, where nodes of ordinary practice and process carry on as best they can. Still more important are guardrails in the other branches of government. The courts have remained independent and tethered to reality. Congress has quietly nixed some of Mr. Trump’s wildest nominees and overruled some of the administration’s destructive impulses, such as its attack on the science budget. State governments, especially in blue states, have been using the courts and their own policies to resist Mr. Trump’s agenda and demand accountable behavior from Washington.
Perhaps most important, the public supports effective and responsive government, not the wild swings of a fugue state — and it is making its feelings known.
Institutional psychosis is ultimately self-defeating and unsustainable. Reality checks will return because reality always reasserts itself. But severe damage will have been done, damage that may take a generation or more to repair.
As the Trump era winds down, the country may relearn something that never should have been forgotten. Institutions need to be reformed, not destroyed; governing well requires skill and careful attention to detail rather than leaders acting on impulse and ignorance; and character and mental stability matter perhaps most of all.
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6) The Next Phase of the Immigration Crackdown Is Quieter — and More Destabilizing
By Jia Lynn Yang, April 10, 2026
Photo illustration by Chantal Jahchan
At his Senate confirmation hearing in March to become the next secretary of homeland security, Markwayne Mullin explained how his tenure would be different from that of his attention-seeking predecessor, Kristi Noem. “My goal in six months is that we’re not in the lead story every single day,” Mullin said.
Gone for now are the concentrated surges into American cities leading to dramatic — and sometimes deadly — clashes between immigration agents and protesters. Mass raids of Home Depot parking lots in search of undocumented day laborers are no longer routine. Immigration enforcement officials continue to deport nearly 1,000 people a day, many of them with no criminal record. But the Trump administration is also ramping up another strategy: to take apart immigrants’ lives, piece by piece, until they decide to leave the country altogether.
In February, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed a new federal rule blocking “mixed status” families from living in publicly subsidized housing, which could cause an estimated 80,000 people to lose their homes, including about 37,000 children, nearly all of them U.S. citizens. Starting in March, roughly 200,000 immigrants began losing their commercial driver’s licenses, under a new ban on truckers who are asylum seekers, refugees or undocumented immigrants who arrived as children. The Trump administration has reportedly weighed an order that would require banks to verify their customers’ citizenship status. Access to capital has already been curtailed. Starting last month, noncitizens can no longer obtain small business loans through the federal government, even if they are here legally.
Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump’s anti-immigration agenda, is lobbying Republican-led states to cut off services. In a meeting last month in Washington, he asked Texas lawmakers why they had not already passed a bill ending public education funding for undocumented children.
In this, the administration is learning a lesson familiar to past presidents of both parties: Millions of people without the right papers are deeply embedded in American society. Even with the world’s most expansive — and expanding — deportation apparatus, the United States does not have remotely enough bureaucratic bandwidth to remove immigrants en masse. And as the public turns against the administration’s most visible, aggressive methods, it’s no surprise it is resorting to another strategy.
Self-deportation is an idea with deep roots. Well before the United States established its first immigration court, the government systematically pressured people to leave by making their lives intolerable. But perhaps no president has made self-deportation such an explicit policy, or taken it to such extreme lengths, as Trump. The Department of Homeland Security regularly trumpets a standing offer to pay $2,600 to any immigrant who exits the country, more than double the sum being offered a year ago. “Home is just a few clicks away!” the department posted on X last month, while also offering a free flight to a home country.
As the Trump administration shifts its strategy away from audacious, citywide raids, it seeks to apply pressure at every point of contact between immigrants and the government, using the country’s vast bureaucracy. But the most important tool for encouraging self-deportation today is the same as it was more than a century ago: fear.
A History of Fear
Immigrants decide to leave this country all the time. They might have always had temporary designs on the United States, a place to simply earn a degree or save some money. A 2010 study found that about one-third of immigrants eventually return to their home country.
Others make the decision less freely. Many unauthorized immigrants, when confronted by a government agent, are pressured to leave rather than fight an official deportation order and risk detention. Adam Goodman, author of “The Deportation Machine: America’s Long History of Expelling Immigrants” and a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago, estimates that about 85 percent of all deportations in U.S. history fall into this category.
Self-deportations are a hazier, unofficial category. The immigrants who self-deport may never cross paths with an agent of the government, making them nearly impossible to count. They may even be in the country legally. And while historians have documented that some leave because their neighbors made their daily lives miserable, many are undeterred.
Going back to the colonial era, there have been efforts to pressure people into self-deporting. In the late 19th century, state and local officials on the West Coast passed laws designed to make Chinese immigrants leave: denying them admission to hospitals and public schools, banning their firecrackers and ceremonial gongs. When these measures didn’t substantially reduce the Chinese population, or temper the anger of white residents, Congress passed the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act, which restricted Chinese immigration and expanded the government’s power to deport.
Citizens still turned to racial terror: They set fire to Chinese businesses and homes, erected gallows, hung effigies and even murdered Chinese residents. In 1885 and 1886, at least 168 communities drove out their Chinese residents with mob violence, the historian Beth Lew-Williams writes in her book “The Chinese Must Go.” Yet all these threats ultimately yielded only partial results. Many Chinese decided to stay in the country. And despite the ban, unauthorized immigrants continued to arrive.
At the turn of the 20th century, amid a nationwide anti-immigrant panic, the federal government passed laws to restrict immigration and deport more people. In 1924, Congress established the Border Patrol. But self-deportation endured; it was too convenient a method when the number of unwanted people outstripped the government’s resources. It also became intertwined with the formal deportation system: Officials learned that the more terrifying they made the prospect of deportation, the fewer people they would have to remove.
During the Great Depression, local officials across the country blamed Mexican Americans for the sudden lack of jobs. State and federal agents worked together to conduct surprise sweeps designed to terrify people into leaving. One local director of immigration in Los Angeles explained that while “the machinery set up for deportation would be entirely inadequate on a large scale,” he believed that “with a little deportation publicity, a large number of these aliens, actuated by guilty self-consciousness, would move south and over the line on their own accord particularly if stimulated by a few arrests.” Between 1929 and 1939, at least half a million people left the country, according to Goodman.
Half a century later, the West Coast again played host to the old idea. Anti-immigrant feeling swelled in California as the state faced an economic downturn and rising unauthorized Mexican migration. In 1994, California passed Proposition 187, which barred hospitals and schools from serving undocumented immigrants. Federal courts would eventually strike down the law, but many states followed suit. At the time, the national effort was pushed by Kris Kobach, a conservative law professor who later became Kansas’ secretary of state, who argued that with a full-blown self-deportation policy, the country could halve its undocumented population. And the government would not need to remove anyone “at gunpoint,” as Kobach explained in an interview, calling his self-deportation plan “a more humane way.”
In 2010, Arizona passed a landmark anti-immigration bill that was unmistakably designed with self-deportation in mind. Lawmakers declared in the text of the bill that “the intent of this act is to make attrition through enforcement,” borrowing from the title of a 2008 paper by Kobach on self-deportation. The law allowed the police to demand “papers” if they suspected a person was undocumented. The police could also arrest a person without a warrant if they suspected the person should be deported. Elements of this law, too, would be struck down by courts, but not before it had its intended effect. An estimated 100,000 Hispanic residents left Arizona the year the law was passed, though some might have left because the state was in the middle of a recession.
Under the second Trump administration, the federal government is making national policy from the ideas that drove the California and Arizona laws. Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, passed last summer, cut health care benefits for immigrants, including many who are here legally. It also imposed a 1 percent tax on remittances and significantly raised fees for immigrants seeking humanitarian protection through due process.
But the most powerful incentive for self-deportation, in the past and today, is the legal deportation process itself. In expanding the number of immigration agents and warehouses, Trump’s bill fortified a national architecture of fear, one that is reinforced daily by the reports — in the news media and by word of mouth — of inedible food, inadequate medical care and the denial of religious rituals in detention centers.
Reshaping the Country
But does terrifying people into leaving the country work? Only partly, and it’s difficult to measure. Those who go of their own accord tend to leave no paper trail. A CNN report last month found that only 72,000 had taken the Trump administration’s much-advertised financial incentives to self-deport — nowhere near the promised 2.2 million.
Most people cling to their lives in the United States — however difficult they become — because they can no longer imagine being anywhere else. Nearly half of the country’s undocumented immigrants have lived here for two decades or more. More than 30 percent are homeowners. And the more difficult it becomes to traverse the border, the less likely some people are to leave, for fear that they won’t be able to return.
“Some people more risk-averse will leave, and the ones who stay will be terrified,” says K-Sue Park, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who argues that the threat of deportation is a way to keep certain people, especially low-paid workers, in check. “They won’t be able to do anything. They won’t even attempt to exercise any of the rights they might exercise.”
A self-deportation campaign of fear can still reshape the country, though. What such policies succeed most in doing is driving undocumented people further underground. They vanish from schools and churches, retreating to an ever smaller circle of daily life. They avoid seeking basic medical care, including vaccinations that are important for protecting the health of the broader public. They are more likely to drive without insurance or a license, making roads less safe for everyone.
And the terror spreads well beyond those who are ostensibly being targeted. By definition, the net is broad, catching far more people than the number who can be deported. The threat of profiling based on race and ethnicity — now permitted by the Supreme Court — has led some citizens to carry their passports with them. Green card holders, once close legal kin to citizens, are being advised by their lawyers to take extra precautions when they leave the country and return. A decades-old misdemeanor charge, however minor, can now lead to detention. As the country has seen, people with green cards, student visas and temporary protected status — legitimate under one president, then void under another — have discovered the fragility of their status.
With Trump retreating for now from showy street-level crackdown, self-deportation is the growing shadow zone of our immigration system, in which threats and intimidation operate where the law will not or cannot go. It is less visible by design. But whether or not people decide to leave this country, the fear that has been let loose is here to stay.
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7) Fuel Protests Cause Transport Chaos in Ireland as Iran War Spikes Prices
The Irish government said it had called in the army after protesters blocked highways, ports and an oil refinery, causing widespread disruption.
By Megan Specia, April 10, 2026
Reporting from Wexford, Ireland
The Irish government promised more help on Friday for sectors affected by surging fuel prices due to the Iran war, after days of wide-scale protests and blockades caused travel chaos in Ireland.
Highways and streets were brought to a standstill, and the government had called in the Army to help clear the roads.
But, after a meeting on Friday between government officials and unions and trade groups representing farmers, truckers and other sectors at the center of the demonstrations, the government said in a statement that it had plans for a further financial support package to ease the strain. Discussions were expected to continue through the weekend and no details have been released.
The government had announced some measures to lower the burden last month, but the protesters said it wasn’t enough. The government said in a statement that it held an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss the demonstrations, which it said were causing “significant disruption for the public, to supply chains and vital services.” It added that the blockades had restricted access to a number of ports, preventing fuel from being distributed to service stations in some parts of Ireland and causing concern that emergency vehicles could run out of fuel.
On Friday afternoon, government officials met with more representative bodies from the agricultural, food, transport, and freight sectors for “a full and frank discussion on the growing pressures,” the government said in a statement.
The government noted that “a significant and enhanced support package” was being finalized “to alleviate the burden on impacted sectors,” and that discussions would continue over the weekend.
Groups of protesters began blocking roads on Tuesday with trucks and tractors, demanding the government do more to ease the burden of fuel costs, which have jumped in price around the world since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The protests appear to have been organized largely in messaging groups and on social media, with truckers, farmers and others reliant on fuel — especially diesel — taking part.
The average price of diesel in Ireland hit 2.11 euros per liter, the equivalent of more than $9.30 per gallon, at the start of this week, according to data compiled by the European Commission. The price of diesel has risen more than 30 percent since the start of the war in Iran.
Last month, the Irish government cut taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel and suspended a tax on home heating oil. But many protesters said the actions did not go far enough, with some demanding a cap on the cost of diesel and gasoline, while others want the tax cuts to be extended.
On Friday, trucks and buses blocked O’Connell Street Bridge in Dublin, a main artery connecting the north and south of the capital, while other protesters blocked roads connecting key ports and the country’s only oil refinery in Cork.
Micheál Martin, the Irish prime minister, said in an interview with The Irish Times published on Friday morning that the government was open to engaging with the protesters but only “through established negotiating channels.”
He said that further measures to ease costs could be possible through negotiations, but added, “the strikes will have to end first.”
The Irish government met with a number of unions this week, including on Monday, the day before the protests began.
Some of the most disruptive actions have taken place on the M50, the highway that encircles Dublin. It is also the main route to the country’s busiest flight hub, Dublin Airport. Some travelers stuck in traffic abandoned their taxis and buses and walked to the airport, rolling their bags along the shoulder, in an effort to make it to their flights after dozens of trucks parked on the roadway on Thursday evening.
But the protests were not just focused on the capital, with demonstrations in towns and villages across the country also causing standstills on local roads.
In the small village of Inch in County Wexford, dozens of cars lined an overpass, with protesters waving an Irish flag and cheering. Tractors blocked the on ramp to the highway, forcing frustrated motorists to turn back and find alternative routes.
Jason Karaian contributed reporting from London.
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8) Iran Tries to Grasp Economic Devastation of War, and Find a Way Past It
The vast scale of destruction wrought by U.S. and Israeli bombardment will make sanctions relief all the more vital to Iran’s government as it tries to negotiate a peace agreement.
By Farnaz Fassihi, April 11, 2026
Farnaz Fassihi has covered Iran for three decades, living and traveling throughout the country. She was a war correspondent based in the Middle East for 15 years.
Assessing the aftermath of a U.S.-Israeli airstrike this month on a bridge in Karaj, Iran. Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
Pooria Asteraky, an engineer in Tehran, has watched his small software company fall apart in the five weeks that war has ravaged Iran. His staff stopped coming to work for fear of airstrikes. Clients canceled contracts and no new orders came in.
With banks being bombed and the internet shut down by the government, checks would not clear. Mr. Asteraky, 50, says he has not paid salaries since the war started, and has struggled to make rent. Facing the prospect of having to close down his company, he has spent hours explaining his plight to his employees. Sometimes they all cry.
“The economic impact of the war has been devastating; it’s hard to put into words. Every sector has been affected,” Mr. Asteraky said in a telephone interview from Tehran.
When Iranian officials meet with Vice President JD Vance and other Americans on Saturday to negotiate an end to the war, Iran’s economy will be high on their agenda. As part of a peace deal, Iran has demanded that the United States lift all sanctions against it. Iran will also ask for reparations for financial losses from the war, and the release of billions of dollars in blocked funds, officials have said.
Iran’s economy was in shambles long before bombs began to drop on Feb. 28. Sanctions imposed years ago by the United States, and more recently by the United Nations, depleted government resources and contributed to the collapse of the currency. An energy crisis brought widespread power cuts. Rampant mismanagement and corruption worsened inflation, which recently spiked to 50 percent.
The war, however, has delivered a staggering blow. Intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment has destroyed or damaged petrochemical plants, steel manufacturing plants, pharmaceutical factories, universities, schools, hospitals, banks, seaports, airports, parts of the power grid, bridges, railroads, shops, homes and more.
Iran is still assessing the cost of the calamity since the fragile cease-fire took hold on Tuesday, but early estimates are between $300 billion and $1 trillion, according to three Iranian officials who were not authorized to speak publicly, and two economists. Recovery will take years.
Economists said that attacks on Iran’s largest petrochemical complexes and steel plants, which according to Iranian media employed more than 200,000 people, were among the most damaging to the economy, with far-reaching consequences. The agricultural, manufacturing, textile and other industries that bought their products will have to import supplies instead, slowing production and driving up prices. Furloughed workers will provide less business to shopkeepers.
The three Iranian officials estimated that more than a million people have lost their jobs.
“The pathway for Iran’s economic development has been closed by this war,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, the chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London-based think tank that tracks the Iranian economy. “The reality is that Iran is going to have a very difficult time rebuilding or reconstructing critical infrastructure if it remains under sanctions.”
He said the economic losses from the war would reinforce Iran’s resolve to demand sanctions relief in negotiations. Iran will need foreign investment and the ability to buy machinery from abroad if it is to recover and address public discontent that has led to waves of protests. None of that will be possible without a comprehensive deal with the United States that removes sanctions, Mr. Batmanghelidj said.
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, had acknowledged in speeches before the war that the government faced a budget crisis. “We don’t have money, we don’t have it,” he said when struggling to explain how his administration could address a multitude of crises like inflation and acute shortages of energy and water.
For legions of ordinary Iranians, financial struggles have taken a critical turn. Many people who work in service jobs or are day laborers have not been paid since February. Shops and businesses, and the bazaars that are the pulse of the economy, have been shuttered. Iran’s flourishing e-commerce, particularly businesses reliant on social media platforms, has been all but wiped out.
“My friends, I’m in dire financial need and have put these four items up for sale. If anyone wants an urban/road bike or a car model, I’m at your service,” Nima Omrani, a web programmer, wrote in a social media post.
Sepehr, 19, a musician in Tehran who made a living by uploading music videos and songs to SoundCloud and social media, said in an interview that “this internet blackout has pushed all our future monthly incomes to essentially zero and we don’t know what’s going to happen.” Like many people interviewed, he asked that his surname be withheld for fear of retribution.
Amir, a resident of Rasht, is a partner in a factory that makes concrete blocks for construction projects, but those have stopped. “We have not had any sales since the war started; we are producing and putting it in storage but I’m not sure how long we can survive,” he said in an interview.
Afshin, 54, an owner of a spice business in Tehran, said in a text message, “We have to pay more for everything we need, and pay it in cash because banking is not functioning properly and this piles to our expenses.” Strikes on banking data centers had caused service outages at two of Iran’s largest banks, Sepah and Melli.
Jila Amiri lost her beauty salon in Heravi Square in northern Tehran to an Israeli airstrike. Israel’s military said it had targeted the offices of Al Araby, a Qatar-based television network, which occupied the same building as her salon. Videos and photographs show the building collapsed and nearby residential buildings severely damaged. Ms. Amiri had said on social media that when she opened her salon in 2024 it was the realization of her lifelong dream and 16 years of labor.
In another part of Tehran, a drone hit Honak music school. “Nothing is left of it; all the musical instruments are gone. My wife and I invested 15 years into building this school, brick by brick, and in one night it was all destroyed,” said the owner, Hamidreza Afarideh, in a video message published on BBC Persian.
Alireza Doroodian, the owner of an electronics factory, said that with sales at a standstill and production costs up, many factory owners have begun laying off workers.
“We posted two job openings last week, and every day we are receiving about 30 applications,” he said. “Before the war we would receive a few a day.”
“The economic fallout of the war is staggering,” he said, “but we hope our officials can negotiate sanctions relief so we can rebuild and stand tall again.”
Parin Behrooz contributed reporting.
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9) In New War With Israel, Hezbollah Defies Notion That It Was Crippled
The Iran-backed Lebanese militant group surprised many with the intensity of its attacks on Israel in the current conflict.
By Abdi Latif Dahir, Reporting from Beirut, Lebanon, April 11, 2026
An Israeli soldier at the site of a Hezbollah missile strike in Haniel, Israel, last month. Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times
One of the big surprises of the war now engulfing the Middle East has been the intensity of attacks by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on neighboring Israel after it held its fire for more than a year.
A nominal cease-fire in late 2024 ended the last Israeli-Hezbollah war, but Israel kept up near-daily strikes on Lebanon in an effort to dismantle the Iran-backed militia and diminish its ability to operate. When Hezbollah did not retaliate, many assumed that was because it had been weakened and much of its arsenal had been destroyed.
Hezbollah has defied that notion by managing to launch consistent rocket barrages into Israel for more than a month now. Officials and experts say the attacks demonstrate that Hezbollah has adapted to its new circumstances, becoming more agile, operating in smaller units and mounting surprise assaults.
The United States and Israel said this past week that Lebanon was not in the cease-fire agreement that was announced with Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue hitting Hezbollah even as it opens talks with the Lebanese government on how to disarm the militant group.
The war has also made clear that Hezbollah retained a sizable arsenal of rockets, missiles and drones and carried on producing weapons locally. Hezbollah’s operations suggest that it saw the 15-month cease-fire not as an end to its conflict with Israel, but as a crucial window to prepare for another round of fighting, according to Israeli, Western and Arab officials and analysts who spoke to The New York Times.
“There was a very wrong widespread assumption that Hezbollah was finished,” said Heiko Wimmen, a Lebanon expert at the research organization International Crisis Group. “But it now appears that was not the case. They did prepare. They did rebuild. They did regroup.”
Here is what we know about the current state of Hezbollah’s arsenal.
Hezbollah was down, but not out.
In the past two years, Hezbollah was weakened by a series of attacks. Israel targeted its fighters by blowing up the pagers they used to communicate, and then killed the group’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah.
The militant group’s power was further eroded by the blows to its allies. Hezbollah’s Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, was ousted from power in late 2024. And last June, Israel waged a brief war against Iran, supported by U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
After the Israel-Hezbollah war paused in late 2024, Israel kept up targeted killings of the group’s fighters and senior commanders. Israel said it struck weapons depots, training camps and smuggling routes to prevent Hezbollah from regrouping.
At the same time, pressure mounted on Hezbollah both domestically and internationally to disarm. When the Lebanese army began to deploy in the south — Hezbollah’s decades-long stronghold — many wondered whether the group’s collapse was just a matter of time.
Then, in early March, just after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, Hezbollah began attacking Israel in solidarity with Tehran. Since then, its fighters have fired hundreds of rockets and drones, fought Israeli troops along the border and displaced communities in northern Israel. The Israeli military says 11 of its soldiers have been killed in southern Lebanon since the latest conflict started.
Israel responded to Hezbollah’s attacks by intensifying a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Israeli officials recently said that their country was preparing to occupy much of southern Lebanon even after the ground invasion ends.
There is little doubt that Hezbollah’s arsenal is smaller than it was before the regional wars that erupted after Hamas-led attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, according to an Israeli military intelligence official and Lebanese military experts. Still, the group has demonstrated that it remains a force to be reckoned with.
Hezbollah relies on missiles, rockets and drones.
Last year, Lebanon’s national armed forces began seizing Hezbollah weapons in the south and asserting state authority in the area. The U.S. military said last October that the Lebanese army had removed nearly 10,000 rockets and about 400 missiles.
Israeli officials, however, maintained that the group’s arsenal was being replenished faster than it was being stripped.
“We never thought Hezbollah had the capabilities to enter this war, let alone this capability to throw this many rockets,” said Hassan Jouni, a retired Lebanese general and military expert.
Before the current war, Hezbollah’s stockpile of rockets and missiles was estimated to number 15,000 to 25,000, according to Israeli security experts and Lebanese military officials. Most of those weapons are short-range artillery rockets, according to Janes, the defense intelligence firm based in London, and an Israeli military intelligence official.
Both Janes and Israeli security experts said they believed that Hezbollah also retained missiles that could reach longer ranges exceeding 120 miles.
Hezbollah fighters are also using antitank missiles, including shoulder-fired systems, to target Israel. The militia received some of the weapons from the Assad regime in Syria, military experts said.
In particular, the group is relying on Kornet antitank missiles, which can strike targets about 3.5 miles away, according to Israeli military officials, a retired Lebanese general and analysts. Many of the Israeli soldiers who were killed or injured in the current war were hit by antitank missiles, two Israeli officials said.
Hezbollah is also using the short-range Almas, an upgraded Iranian version of Israel’s Gil missile, according to Sarit Zehavi, the founder of the Israeli security nonprofit, Alma Research and Education Center, and a senior Israeli military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential matters. It has versions that can range from about two to 10 miles, far enough to reach northern Israel.
Hezbollah has said it is also deploying attack drones against Israel. Lebanese and Israeli military officials say the group largely relies on makeshift, low-cost drones.
On March 4, the group released a video purporting to show a fighter setting up a drone concealed in a bush. Other images shared by Hezbollah and the Israeli military show the group’s fighters using rocket-propelled grenades and Kalashnikov rifles.
Hezbollah is still producing arms locally.
The fall of the Syrian regime largely cut off the land bridge through Syria that Iran had long used to supply Hezbollah with weapons and money. The group needed to adjust to the new circumstances in the region.
At least one senior Hezbollah official has said that during the cease-fire with Israel, the militia worked to restore its arsenal and rebuild its ground forces.
Security experts and Lebanese military officials say Hezbollah has increasingly focused on local production, using guidance kits and components that can be assembled quickly. This means they can produce rocket bodies, fins, nose cones, smaller motors and warheads, according to Janes.
While Israel says it has targeted many of Hezbollah’s production sites, new ones seem to keep emerging, according to Janes and Ali Hamie, a Lebanese military analyst.
Hezbollah is also assembling drones locally with cheap Chinese parts and often with improvised modifications, according to the two Israeli military officials and Khaled Hamadeh, a retired brigadier general with the Lebanese army.
“They import the spare parts. They have the know-how. And the drones might not be sophisticated,” but they are doing the job, Mr. Hamadeh said.
Hezbollah operates in smaller units.
Several Israeli and Lebanese officials, along with regional security experts, estimate that Hezbollah now has up to 2,000 militants fighting south of the Litani River. The territory south of the river to Israel’s northern border has for decades been Hezbollah’s stronghold.
These forces are currently organized into dispersed, semiautonomous units, sometimes as small as three or four fighters, according to officials and experts, who say the smaller numbers enhance their ability to strike in multiple locations. This is in contrast to their operations in recent years.
As a result, Hezbollah has resorted to the “guerrilla-style warfare” that it used during its 2006 war with Israel, said Naji Malaeb, a Lebanese military expert and retired brigadier general.
Lebanese military experts, an analyst close to the group and one Israeli official say that Hezbollah and Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards force still coordinate operationally, though that collaboration has weakened. The foreign arm of the Guards, the Quds Force, oversees Iran’s proxy militias around the Middle East.
In early March, Israel targeted what it said were Revolutionary Guards operatives at a hotel in Beirut. More than 100 Iranian nationals, including Revolutionary Guards officers, were among those who were evacuated to Russia in early March, according to a senior Lebanese civil aviation officer who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss confidential matters.
Dayana Iwaza, Natan Odenheimer and Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting.
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10) The Postal Service Is in Trouble. Here’s How It Could Affect Your Mail.
Despite numerous attempts to reform the Postal Service, the agency’s business model has not changed significantly since 1970. Officials are proposing to decrease service and increase prices.
By Adam Sella, Reporting from Washington, April 11, 2026
In testimony to Congress last month, David Steiner, the postmaster general, delivered a dire warning. Without drastic measures, he said, the U.S. Postal Service could run out of cash in less than a year.
He called on lawmakers to consider significant changes to save money, like allowing the service to increase prices, decrease delivery days and rethink revenue-losing routes.
On Thursday, the Postal Service proposed increasing the cost of stamps by 5 percent, and said that it would temporarily suspend some payments to a government retirement fund.
The push for belt-tightening comes after the Postal Service’s most profitable product, first-class mail, has been in decline for about two decades. In fiscal years 2024 and 2025, the service incurred net losses of $9.5 billion and $9 billion — roughly 10 percent of its operating budget.
Despite attempts in recent years to reform the Postal Service, the agency’s business model has not changed significantly since 1970, when Congress converted it from a cabinet-level department funded by taxpayers to a self-financed, independent agency.
“The core issue here is the existing U.S.P.S. business model, where it’s supposed to be financially self-supporting based on providing postal services, just doesn’t work today,” said David Marroni, a Postal Service expert at the Government Accountability Office.
The agency dominates the market in delivering letters, but faces fierce competition on package delivery from private companies like FedEx, U.P.S. and Amazon. Even as letter volume has gone down, Americans still rely on the Postal Service to deliver critical mail, such as prescription drugs, official documents and election ballots.
In an interview, Mr. Steiner said the future of the Postal Service was in the hands of Congress and the American people. “We can do whatever you want us to do,” he said. “We’ve been doing it for 250 years. But who’s going to pay for it? We cannot continue to do the things that lose us money on a very consistent basis.”
Here are some changes the agency is proposing.
Decreasing Service
The Postal Service is required to uphold its “universal service obligation” to deliver to everyone in the United States at a reasonable price. In 2022, Congress added a six-day-a-week delivery requirement.
That commitment has cost the agency money: more than $6.5 billion a year, the Postal Regulatory Commission estimated in 2025. Seven out of 10 U.S.P.S. delivery routes are “financially underwater,” Mr. Steiner told Congress last month.
The Postal Service estimates that reducing delivery from six days to five days a week would save between $2.9 to $3.5 billion a year. Closing small post offices and unprofitable routes could save about $1 billion.
Such a change could hit rural communities particularly hard, as private carriers have less of a financial incentive to provide delivery to those areas.
At the recent hearing with Mr. Steiner, lawmakers were loath to endorse service cuts, especially to rural Americans. Representative Pete Sessions, Republican of Texas and a leading postal reform advocate, said that he came from “a great big rural district, and I care about everybody.”
“Americans in every part of this country rely upon and really deserve prompt, reliable and efficient mail services,” said Representative Kweisi Mfume, a Maryland Democrat who has committed to working closely with Mr. Sessions on postal reform.
He added: “We cannot lose the postal service as we know it.”
Increasing prices
The Postal Service cannot change pricing on its own. It must get approval from an independent regulatory commission, which limits the agency’s ability to raise prices.
On Monday, the commission approved a temporary surcharge of 8 percent on packages, in light of rising fuel and transportation costs. It is set to take effect later this month.
Three days later, the Postal Service went back to the Postal Regulatory Commission and requested a 5 percent increase on postage prices. That would raise the price of popular products, such as first-class mail “forever” stamps, which would cost 82 cents, up from 78 cents.
That is still below Mr. Steiner’s proposal, which would increase the price to just under a dollar.
That idea was not met with enthusiasm by lawmakers. Experts have noted that price increases could lead to even fewer people using mail.
Mr. Steiner called for price limits to be loosened, comparing the United States with industrialized countries that have much higher postage costs, such as $1.33 in Germany and $4.65 in Denmark for the equivalent of first-class mail.
Removing financial limits
Many of the Postal Service’s budget challenges could be alleviated if Congress loosens restrictions on how the agency allocates and invests its retirement funds and adjusts the agency’s borrowing limit, Mr. Steiner said.
For example, the Postal Service is only allowed to invest its retirement funds in Treasury notes. The Postal Service’s Office of Inspector General estimated in 2023 that U.S.P.S. retirement funds would have been worth approximately $800 billion more if they had been able to be invested in a mix of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent Treasury bonds.
Since 1992, Congress capped the agency’s borrowing at $15 billion, and it has been at that limit since late 2024.
Some lawmakers appear to be open to adjusting the debt limit. “We’re going to have to find a way, as we all know, inevitably, to look at restructuring that debt limit,” Mr. Mfume, the Maryland Democrat, said at the oversight hearing.
While such solutions would not directly solve the agency’s systemic challenges, they would give it more financial wiggle room.
On Thursday, the Postal Service announced that it would temporarily suspend some payments to a government retirement fund, a move it said was necessary to ensure that the agency had enough cash to operate through next February. That move is expected to free up about $2.5 billion this fiscal year.
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11) Judges Fired After Blocking Deportations of Pro-Palestinian Students
The immigration judges’ abrupt dismissals marked the latest efforts by the Trump administration to reshape the country’s immigration courts.
By Hamed Aleaziz, Nicholas Nehamas and Steven Rich, April 11, 2026
The Trump administration has fired two immigration judges who dismissed high-profile deportation cases against international students who had advocated for Palestinians.
The firings of the judges, Roopal Patel and Nina Froes, marked the latest efforts by the Trump administration to reshape the country’s immigration courts.
The administration has dismissed dozens of immigration judges and, according to those on the bench, has put judges under pressure to deny asylum claims and order deportations. Unlike federal judges in the independent judicial branch, immigration judges work for the Justice Department and are hired and fired by the attorney general.
The two judges, who were terminated alongside four colleagues on Friday, oversaw two high-profile cases filed by the government against the students, Rumeysa Ozturk and Mohsen Mahdawi.
Mr. Trump has aggressively sought to reshape the immigration courts since he won a second term, with dramatic results. Judges are ordering a record number of people deported and granting asylum at the lowest rate since at least 2009, the first year for which reliable data is available. Cases are being resolved faster, and a backlog of claims that soared under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has started to fall.
Ms. Ozturk and Mr. Mahdawi were arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents last year. Their detentions had been part of a string of arrests of international students who had publicly expressed support of Palestinian causes or had taken part in protests on U.S. campuses that the Trump administration labeled antisemitic.
Ms. Ozturk, a Turkish-born student at Tufts University, had her student visa status in the United States repealed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio after writing an article in a student newspaper criticizing university leadership’s stances on Palestinian causes. The government similarly tried to deport Mr. Mahdawi, a Palestinian student at Columbia University and green card holder, because of his involvement in campus protests. Mr. Rubio said his continued presence in the country could “potentially undermine” U.S. foreign policy.
Civil liberties advocates said the arrests were meant to stifle free speech. The government filed cases in immigration court to deport both students.
Ms. Patel, an immigration judge in Boston, ruled in January that there were no grounds to deport Ms. Ozturk. Ms. Froes came to a similar conclusion in Mr. Mahdawi’s case. Ms. Patel and Ms. Froes had been appointed by the Biden administration in 2024. Both were approaching the end of an initial two-year probationary term before their firings.
In an interview, Ms. Froes said she was unsure if ruling against Mr. Mahdawi might have preserved her job.
“I don’t know what’s in the minds of other people,” she said. “But I can’t imagine it was helpful.”
The Justice Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday.
A U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly confirmed that six judges had been fired on Friday. The official said four of them were probationary.
The nation’s immigration courts are little known to the general public but have tremendous power. They are often the final stop before a person can be lawfully removed from the United States.
Before Mr. Trump returned to office, it was rare for immigration judges to be fired. His administration has so far dismissed more than 100 of them. In addition to the firings, the administration has hired more than 140 permanent and temporary judges seen as more aligned with Mr. Trump’s immigration enforcement campaign.
Both Ms. Patel and Ms. Froes fit the profile of many judges who have lost their jobs during the second Trump administration: They had been appointed by a Democrat and previously represented immigrants in court.
They also granted asylum at higher rates than other judges. Under Mr. Trump, Ms. Patel granted asylum in 41.5 percent of cases, while Ms. Froes granted asylum in 33 percent of cases, compared with 18 percent for judges overall, according to a New York Times analysis of immigration court data.
Ms. Froes, a judge at the immigration court in Chelmsford, Mass., said she was conducting an asylum hearing on Friday afternoon when she received an email telling her she had been dismissed. She told lawyers for both sides that she needed to halt the case and signed out of the hearing, which was being held virtually.
“I fully expected it,” she said of her firing, citing the number of judges dismissed by the Trump administration.
Ms. Froes also said she had no idea that Mr. Mahdawi’s case was so high-profile when she heard it.
“You have so many people coming before you,” she said. “You don’t go Google people’s names. That’s not how it works. You look at the record.”
Ms. Patel, like many immigration judges interviewed by The Times, said the Trump administration had made it clear that it wanted more immigrants ordered deported.
“It was a pressure I at least tried to actively resist,” she said in an interview. “All people in the United States are entitled to due process, and everyone deserves to have their cases adjudicated fully and fairly.”
Many experts argue that the immigration courts should be granted more independence from the executive branch, like the protections given to the administrative courts that hear tax disputes.
After her stint on the bench, Ms. Patel said she agreed.
“The judges there need more judicial independence,” she said.
Allison McCann contributed reporting. Georgia Gee contributed research.
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12) Trump Says U.S. Will ‘Blockade’ Strait of Hormuz After Peace Talks Fail
Vice President JD Vance said Sunday that marathon talks between the United States and Iran had failed to immediately produce a deal to fully reopen the strait and end the war. Iran’s top negotiator had suggested further talks were possible.
By Tyler Pager, Aaron Boxerman and Isabel Kershner, Tyler Pager reported from Islamabad, Pakistan. April 12, 2026
Vice President JD Vance before departing Islamabad, Pakistan, on Sunday, following talks with Iran. Credit...Pool photo by Jacquelyn Martin
President Trump said Sunday that the United States will enforce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, stepping up pressure on Iran after marathon peace talks between top Iranian and American leaders in Pakistan ended without a breakthrough.
The announcement by Mr. Trump plunged the already brittle truce into further uncertainty. Vice President JD Vance and the chief Iranian negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, met in Pakistan over the weekend, but did not reach a deal to fully reopen the strait and end the war. A naval blockade could be considered an act of war by Iran.
“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” Mr. Trump wrote in one of two lengthy social media posts on the talks.
Mr. Trump had conditioned the two-week cease-fire on Iran ending its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s own blockade of the strait sent global oil prices soaring by more than 50 percent during the monthlong conflict, which began in late February.
In practice, however, only a few ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the cease-fire came into effect last Tuesday. U.S. officials blame Iran, which they say has sought to impose tolls on ships passing through the waterway. Mr. Trump said the U.S. Navy would “seek and interdict” any vessel that paid the fee to Iran.
Iran’s leaders have given no indication that they intend to relax their control of the waterway, which they view as a crucial bargaining chip. In a defiant post on social media earlier on Sunday, Ali Akbar Velayati, a member of Iran’s negotiating team, said “the key” to the Strait of Hormuz “is firmly in our hands.”
Analysts said the issues dividing the two countries were so complex — and their differences so entrenched — that cinching a deal in a single round of talks had been highly unlikely. But neither Mr. Vance nor Mr. Ghalibaf had ruled out another round of negotiations before the two-week cease-fire expires on Apr. 21.
Mr. Ghalibaf said on social media that deep distrust between the two sides posed an obstacle to reaching an agreement. The United States had been “unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of talks,” he said. “Now it is time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not.”
The last talks between the United States and Iran fizzled, and were promptly followed by a U.S.-Israeli attack in late February that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and ignited more than a month of war. Mediated by Pakistan, this weekend’s negotiations were the highest-level face-to-face encounter between U.S. and Iranian leaders since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Mr. Trump, who was watching a U.F.C. fight in Florida during the talks, had declared the cease-fire last week in part to ease the shock from the loss of access to 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies. The other two key issues were the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium and Iran’s demand that about $27 billion in frozen revenues held abroad be released, the officials said.
Here’s what else we’re covering:
· Mines in Hormuz: The Pentagon said on Saturday that two U.S. warships crossed the Strait of Hormuz to begin an operation to clear mines from the critical waterway. Iran denied the claim. Only a handful of ships have passed through the strait since the cease-fire began. U.S. officials said one reason Iran had been unable to get more ships through was that it could not locate and remove all of the mines it had laid in the waterway.
· Israel and Lebanon: Israel was not involved in the weekend negotiations and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoided mentioning them in an address on Saturday evening as he faces criticism at home over the cease-fire with Iran. Israel has kept up deadly attacks on southern Lebanon, including on Sunday morning, according to Lebanon’s state media. Iran had accused Israel of breaking the cease-fire by continuing to attack in Lebanon, leading Mr. Trump to ask Israel to rein in its assault. The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States are expected to meet in Washington next week for rare direct talks.
· Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,701 civilians, including 254 children, had been killed in Iran as of Wednesday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Saturday said that 2,020 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, including 357 in a wave of Israeli strikes on Wednesday. In attacks attributed to Iran, at least 32 people have been killed in Gulf nations. At least 22 people had been killed in Israel as of Sunday, as well as 12 Israeli soldiers fighting in Lebanon. The American death toll stands at 13 service members.
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13) I Can’t Endure This’: Inside a Bombarded City in Southern Lebanon
In Tyre, a city on Lebanon’s coast, near-daily bombardments by Israel have killed and injured civilians, and left many searching for shelter.
By Christina Goldbaum and Hwaida Saad, Visuals by David Guttenfelder, April 12, 2026
Christina Goldbaum, Hwaida Saad and David Guttenfelder traveled to Tyre, a city in southern Lebanon within Israel’s evacuation zone, to report this story.
Medics transporting a man who was critically wounded by an Israeli strike in Tyre, Lebanon, last month.
The mother sat on the curb outside a hospital in southern Lebanon, holding her phone and pleading with a photo of her sons on its screen.
“I’m waiting for you, answer me, answer me,” the woman, Fatima Kholeif, cried. “I’m your mother, just answer me.”
Her relatives huddled around her, unsure of what to do. When one tried to coax the phone from Ms. Kholeif’s hands to calm her down, she just clutched it harder. Didn’t they understand? The photos were all she had left of her sons — the sons who had just bought her hair dye so she could color her wispy, gray curls, a respite from the Israeli bombing. The sons who had kissed her cheeks that morning as they left for work harvesting oranges in an orchard nearby. The sons who were killed on that orchard in an airstrike.
“I can’t endure this,” she cried, her voice trailing off. “Two of my sons, two, two, two.”
Within minutes, a frenzy erupted around her as news arrived that the Israeli military had issued a warning about imminent strikes near the hospital in Tyre, a coastal city within the large swath of southern Lebanon where Israel has told residents to flee north. Other families waiting outside the hospital scattered, racing away on motorcycles toward the seaside. “Come on,” Ms. Kholeif’s neighbor said, lifting her off the curb and shuttling her into a car before Israeli warplanes arrived overhead.
Ms. Kholeif’s sons, 23-year-old Abdul Rahman Jadour and 30-year-old Ayman Jadour, were among several Syrian farmworkers killed in the strikes, according to relatives, hospital officials and rescue workers. They were the latest casualties in a war that has consumed Tyre. The fighting began after Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, fired on Israel last month in support of Tehran, prompting Israel to bombard and invade Lebanon.
Ever since, Tyre has been transformed by fear. The city’s population is predominantly Shiite Muslim, the same sect as Hezbollah. Its busiest streets have emptied, the metal shutters have been pulled over storefronts, and residents are wary of leaving their homes.
Despite a fragile cease-fire in Iran, Israel has vowed to keep striking Hezbollah and on Wednesday launched a barrage of airstrikes across Lebanon that killed more than 300 people. It was the deadliest day since the war began.
Littered across the roads are the remains of Israeli airstrikes. There are buildings with their facades sheared off. Entire rooms of apartments were hurled across the road and lie on top of mounds of rubble. Poking through the wreckage are signs of the lives once lived there: A doll with blond hair. A black and bright green roller blade. The severed half of a headphone.
Tyre is within the large swath of land south of the Litani River — around 10 percent of the country — that Israel says it plans to occupy after its ground invasion ends. That rhetoric has stoked concerns among residents that if they abide by the evacuation warnings and leave their homes, they may never be able to return. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, has said that Israeli forces will not allow Shiite residents who flee north to return south until the “security of northern Israeli residents is ensured.”
That fear has pushed many more residents of Tyre to remain in the city compared with the previous hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2024, according to municipal officials. Even in the surrounding countryside, which has been battered by airstrikes, around 5,000 residents have stayed in their villages — twice as many as during the 2024 war, the officials said. Nearly 20,000 more have fled southern villages for Tyre rather than head north of the Litani River.
“People are saying that if we leave, it will make it easier for them to occupy,” said Daher Habib Baher, 59, referring to Israeli forces. Mr. Baher left Tyre during the 2024 escalation, but chose to stay in the city this time in a school turned shelter that felt safer than his neighborhood.
“We have roots here,” he said. “We have to do whatever we can to keep our land.”
For those in the city, daily life has been upended. The thunder of warplanes has echoed overhead along with the clap of outgoing artillery fired by Hezbollah fighters. White plumes of smoke from Israeli airstrikes and artillery hitting the hinterland billow over the horizon as Israeli ground forces inch closer to the city, stoking fears that it could soon be invaded or besieged.
One recent afternoon in central Tyre, Zeinab Judi, 55, watched as her brother tried to untangle the spider web of electrical wires that had come crashing down after a strike hit her neighbors’ apartment building.
In the two days since, all she could focus on was furiously cleaning up her home. She swept glass off the floors, fixed the doors that had flown off their hinges and searched in the broken porcelain tub for her missing shower head — small tasks to regain the sense of control that the war had stripped from her.
“I want to go back to how life used to be,” Ms. Judi said, bursting into tears. “How can we live like this?”
Around the corner, her neighbor, Salwa Mamlouk, 35, looked on as she patched a broken pipe that was still spouting water.
“We are still paying the price from the last war,” Ms. Mamlouk said.
Still, she said, any frustration she felt with Hezbollah for firing on Israel and kicking off the war had been replaced by anger at Israel for the devastation it has wrought, and by exasperation with the Lebanese government for being unable to stop it.
“Hezbollah is the only one defending us against Israel,” she said. “The government is just sitting by and watching.”
That sentiment is widespread in Tyre, where Hezbollah maintains a large base of support and where they have made their presence known. The highway leading into the city is decorated with yellow and green Hezbollah flags. In recent weeks, posters with photos of Iran’s slain leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, have cropped up across the city.
So, too, have temporary graves for civilians and Hezbollah fighters killed in the war, whose bodies cannot be transported to the border villages that Israeli forces have captured. Instead, they are placed in plywood coffins, lowered into trenches beside a shopping mall and marked with numbers spray-painted in red on cinder blocks.
Much of the life that remains in Tyre takes place in the city’s Christian enclave by the seaside, the only area that has not been included in the evacuation warnings. There, Christian residents mix with Shiites from other parts of the city who have slept in cars or city-run shelters.
Inside one broken-down school bus, 7-year-old Jana Fadi Muhana looked up when she heard the thud from Israeli strikes one recent afternoon.
“There’s a sound! There’s a sound!” she cried out. She paused, looked to the bus door, which was jammed shut, and then asked her sister to pull her out through the driver’s side window and take her to their mother.
“Sometimes she collapses or cries when she hears the planes and the drones,” her father, Fadi Muhana, 50, muttered as he stood nearby. By the time the family decided to leave their house, the shelters had filled up, so his boss lent him the bus to sleep in after the restaurant where he worked shuttered.
“What can we do? Where can we go?” Mr. Muhana said.
Down the road, Yousef Ghafary cut through plywood in his carpentry shop, among the only businesses open on the street. A Christian whose family has lived in Tyre for generations, Mr. Ghafary said that Tyre’s minority Christian and Sunni Muslim residents had been tightly integrated with its Shiite population for decades.
But the war has strained that delicate social fabric. Many Christians now decline invitations from their Shiite friends for fear that they could become collateral damage in Israeli attacks targeting Shiites.
“You know they are the ones under threat, and you worry about exposing yourself to it by being with them,” Mr. Ghafary said.
“I just don’t see an end to this war,” he added.
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14) Israel Launches New Attacks in Lebanon, Days Ahead of Rare Direct Talks
Israel’s campaign targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon has been a source of tension in the U.S.-Iran cease-fire. Israeli and Lebanese officials plan to meet for rare talks in Washington this week.
By Isabel Kershner, Reporting from Jerusalem, April 12, 2026
A building in the Lebanese capital, Beirut destroyed after Israeli strikes on the city. David Guttenfelder/The New York Times
Israel launched new attacks on Lebanon on Sunday after the United States and Iran failed to reach a quick peace deal over the weekend.
Last week, President Trump asked Israel to scale back its attacks on Lebanon. The fighting in recent days, which Israel says is targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, appears to be focused on southern Lebanon; Israel has not bombed the capital, Beirut, since an onslaught on Wednesday.
Israeli and Lebanese officials plan to meet for rare talks in Washington this coming week.
On Sunday, two Israeli attacks on towns in southern Lebanon killed at least 11 people, according to Lebanon’s official news agency. The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the raids on Sunday.
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah fired more rockets toward Israel over the weekend. The Israeli military said that it had struck a rocket launcher in southern Lebanon overnight that was poised to fire toward Israel.
Israel’s ongoing invasion of Lebanon has been a source of tension in the cease-fire with Iran. Iran had demanded that the truce extend to Lebanon as well. But Israel and the United States said it was not part of their agreement.
Hours after the cease-fire was announced, Israel bombarded Beirut and other parts of Lebanon on Wednesday. That wave of Israeli strikes killed more than 300 people, according to the Lebanese authorities. It was the deadliest day of fighting since Hezbollah joined the fray in early March by firing rockets at Israel in solidarity with Tehran. Israeli officials said that about 200 of those killed in Lebanon on Wednesday belonged to Hezbollah, without providing any evidence.
One person familiar with Israeli policy decisions said on Sunday that Israel’s ongoing campaign was focused on southern Lebanon, and it was holding back from targeting Beirut and the city’s outskirts. The Israeli military declined to comment.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday night that Israel was “still active” on the Lebanese front.
“We are fighting Hezbollah and we are determined, I am determined, to return security to the residents” of northern Israel, he said.
He added that the preparatory talks expected between Israel and Lebanon would focus on the disarmament of Hezbollah and efforts to reach a lasting peace between the two countries. The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States are expected to meet in Washington on Tuesday.
Differences have already emerged over the scope of that meeting.
The office of President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon said on Friday that the parties agreed to discuss a cease-fire announcement and the setting of a date for the start of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel under U.S. auspices.
Israel’s ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, said Israel had “agreed to begin formal peace negotiations this coming Tuesday,” but that it “refused to discuss a cease-fire” with Hezbollah.
The Israeli authorities appear to be bracing for the possibility of more fighting and Hezbollah fire in the lead-up to the meeting planned for Tuesday. Restrictions limiting public gatherings were tightened in the northern border areas of Israel and a decision to reopen schools there on Sunday was reversed.
Hwaida Saad and Reham Mourshed contributed reporting.
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15) A New Era of World War Has Arrived
By Paul Poast, April 12, 2026
Dr. Poast is an associate professor of political science at the University of Chicago.
Vincent Longhi
By the time the war in Iran began on Feb. 28, the world was already fighting. The past two years brought more war — both within and between countries — than in any years since the end of World War II. A new normal of rising conflict had arrived.
Now, as the war in Ukraine drags on and the American and Israeli war against Iran is paused under a fragile cease-fire, we are watching another unwelcome phenomenon return to the global stage: the world war. Two large conflicts on different continents have become theaters for strategic competition between major powers. Each war’s dynamics have had a direct impact on the other’s, and both have dragged ancillary states into the fray. And while the combined scale and intensity of the conflicts falls far short of the two devastating world wars fought last century, they have arisen from the same dangerous reflex: competing nations fully embracing military force as the first and primary means of exerting power.
Russia and the United States went to war for different reasons. President Vladimir Putin of Russia sought to expand his territorial reach and regain land that — in his mind — belongs in the Russian sphere. The stated objectives for the United States in going to war against Iran varied, but President Trump has consistently said that Iran can’t be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon. (Israel, America’s partner in the war, shares that objective, but has political aims of its own, a reality that could scuttle the cease-fire altogether.) Still, both Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump believed success would be easy and that their goal justified virtually any level of violence — even if it broke the bounds of international law.
In a few short weeks, the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran became expressions of the great power competition underway. In both theaters, Russia and the United States have backed each other’s adversaries. The United States continues to provide arms, intelligence and planning to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, and Russia was reported to be doing the same for Iran by providing targeting information and mapping on U.S. military positions and sending drones to Tehran. While the United States and Russia aren’t directly firing on each other, the powers have essentially loaded and pointed the guns being fired by others.
Each war has affected the other. The shock to global oil prices induced by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become a financial windfall for Russia, both in higher prices for its own oil and through the easing of sanctions on that oil by a Trump administration desperate to lower global prices. As attention and resources are diverted to Iran, Russia has launched a spring offensive aimed at consolidating and expanding its territorial gains in Ukraine. Ukraine, meanwhile, has offered the expertise in drone defense it has acquired in its fight against Russia to the United States and the Arab nations being targeted by Iran.
Both conflicts have pulled in other countries. In Ukraine, Russia’s war effort has long been enabled by the economic and technical support of China, the direct manpower contributions of North Korea and drones from Iran. European allies have played an increasingly important role in helping arm Ukraine, even taking the lead in that effort over the past year. And while NATO countries have not answered Mr. Trump’s call to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open, last month NATO-run missile defense systems shot down Iranian missiles directed toward Turkey. Iranian missiles aimed at several Gulf states have dragged those nations into the fight, while Israel has attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have launched missiles at Israel.
The First and Second World Wars involved millions of soldiers from great powers directly fighting one another, resulting in millions of deaths. But not all world wars will look like those two cataclysmic conflicts. Indeed, those events were not even the first or second world wars. The Seven Years’ War of the mid-18th century and the Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century were also global fights, comprising separate wars occurring on different continents involving major powers that were either directly fighting or coordinating between the conflicts.
The Seven Years’ War of 1756 to 1763 is instructive for understanding the meaning of world war as it’s playing out today. The war was primarily fought in Europe, with Britain and Prussia on one side and France and Austria on the other. With Britain and France in possession of global empires, the battles extended across multiple continents. This, too, was a time when countries were embracing the use of military force to assert their national power.
Some argue that the Cold War was a world war. It is certainly true that the notion that the Cold War was cold is a misnomer: It was a period of intense conflict touching many parts of the globe. But Cold War conflicts lacked the interconnectedness and simultaneity on display in Europe and the Middle East. And, importantly, the superpowers during this time exercised caution about using military force that constrained their actions, in no small part because of the nuclear arsenals they were amassing. Today, both Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump display a more cavalier approach to using the military to achieve their goals — and a greater indifference to the consequences, both economic and social.
Why is it important to see the wars in Iran and Ukraine as part of a global event, rather than two conflicts unfolding in parallel?
Looking at how the wars are connected shows the necessity for our leaders to think globally in an emerging multipolar world where powers vie for control of regions or spheres of influence. A conflict in one region almost certainly will spill over into another. Resources allocated to one fight may mean fewer resources for another, undermining efforts to deter a threat or assist an ally in need. Failing to recognize the global span of security issues is exactly how states can stumble from a limited war of choice into a world war they did not intend.
Last year was 80 years since the end of the Second World War. That conflict’s devastation remains unmatched, and we should hope that remains the case. Even if we never endure another global conflict of that scale, we are nevertheless once again witnessing a return to an era of a world war.
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16) Mutually Automated Destruction: The Escalating Global A.I. Arms Race
China, the U.S., Russia and others have ramped up their contest over artificial-intelligence-backed weapons and military systems. The buildup has been compared to the dawn of the nuclear weapons age.
By Sheera Frenkel, Paul Mozur and Adam Satariano, April 12, 2026
Sheera Frenkel reported from San Francisco; Paul Mozur from Taipei, Taiwan; and Adam Satariano from London.
Anduril’s autonomous air vehicle, Fury, which recently began production at the company’s new factory outside Columbus, Ohio. Kristian Thacker for The New York Times
At a military parade in Beijing in September, President Xi Jinping and his special guests, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, watched as Chinese forces showed off several models of drones that could autonomously fly alongside fighter jets into battle.
The demonstration of technological might immediately set off alarm bells in the United States. Pentagon officials concluded that America’s program for unmanned combat drones was lagging China’s, according to three U.S. defense and intelligence officials. Russia, too, was thought to be ahead in building facilities that could produce advanced drones, said the officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly on military capabilities.
U.S. officials pushed domestic defense companies to step up. Last month, Anduril, a defense technology start-up in California, began manufacturing A.I.-backed, self-flying drones that appeared similar to the ones shown in China. Production at a factory outside Columbus, Ohio, started three months ahead of schedule, part of an effort to close the gap with China, one defense official said.
China’s military display and the U.S. countermove were part of an escalating global arms race over A.I.-backed autonomous weapons and defense systems. Designed to operate by themselves using A.I., the technology reduces the need for human intervention in decisions like when to hit a moving target or defend against an attack.
In recent years, many nations have quietly engaged in a contest of one-upmanship over these arsenals, including drones that identify and strike targets without human command, self-flying fighter jets that coordinate attacks at speeds and altitudes that few human pilots can reach, and central systems run by A.I. that analyze intelligence to recommend airstrike targets quickly.
The United States and China, the world’s largest military powers, are at the center of the competition. But the race has widened. Russia and Ukraine, now in their fifth year of war, are looking for every technological advantage. India, Israel, Iran and others are investing in military A.I., while France, Germany, Britain and Poland are rearming amid doubts about the Trump administration’s commitment to NATO.
Each nation is aiming to amass the most advanced technological stockpile in case they need to fight drone against drone and algorithm against algorithm in ways that people cannot match, defense and intelligence officials said.
Russia, China and the United States are all building A.I. arms as a deterrent and for “mutually assured destruction,” Palmer Luckey, Anduril’s founder, said in an interview in February.
Exactly which nation is furthest ahead is unclear. Many programs are in a research and development phase, and budgets are classified. Operatives from China, the United States and Russia watch one another’s factory lines, military displays and weapons deals to deduce what the other is doing, intelligence officials said.
China and Russia are experimenting with letting A.I. make battlefield decisions on its own, two U.S. officials said. China is developing systems for dozens of autonomous drones to coordinate attacks without human input, while Russia is building Lancet drones that can circle in the sky and autonomously pick targets, they said.
Even as the specifics of the technologies remain veiled, the intentions are clear. In 2017, Mr. Putin declared that whoever leads in A.I. “will become the ruler of the world.” Mr. Xi said in 2024 that technology would be the “main battleground” of geopolitical competition. In January, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed all branches of the U.S. military to adopt A.I., saying they needed to “accelerate like hell.”
Billions of dollars are being poured into the efforts. The Pentagon requested more than $13 billion for autonomous systems in its latest budget, and has spent billions more over the past decade, though the total is difficult to track because A.I. funding has been spread across many programs.
China, which some researchers said was spending amounts comparable to those of the United States, has used financial incentives to spur private industry to build A.I. capabilities. Russia has invested in drone and autonomy-related programs, analysts said, using the war in Ukraine to test and refine them on the battlefield.
Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said China had proposed international frameworks for governing military A.I. and called for “a prudent and responsible attitude” toward its development.
The Pentagon and Russia’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment.
The dynamics may resemble the Cold War, but experts cautioned that the A.I. era was different. Start-ups and investors now play a role in the military and are as critical as universities and governments. A.I. technology is becoming widely available, opening the door for countries from Turkey to Pakistan to develop new capabilities. What’s emerging is a grinding innovation race without any obvious endpoint.
Ethical questions about ceding life-or-death choices to machines are being overtaken by the rush to build. The only major accord on A.I. weaponry between China and the United States was reached in 2024, a nonbinding pledge to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons. Other countries, like Russia, have made no commitments.
Some argued that A.I.’s impact would be bigger than any arms race.
“A.I. is a general-purpose technology like electricity. And we don’t talk about an electricity arms race,” said Michael Horowitz, a former Pentagon official involved in autonomous weapons development. “To the extent A.I. is transforming our military, it’s the way that electricity or computers or the airplane did.”
The Buildup Begins
In 2016 at an air show in the southern Chinese city of Zhuhai, a Chinese supplier flew 67 drones in unison. An animated film separately showed the drones destroying a missile launcher, a demonstration of their capabilities.
Russia, too, was building its drone arsenal. In 2014, its military planners set a goal of making 30 percent of its combat power autonomous by 2025. By 2018, the Russian military was testing an unmanned armed vehicle in Syria. While the tank failed, losing its signal and missing targets, it underscored Moscow’s ambitions.
In Washington, Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan, who had previously worked in intelligence at the Defense Department, was assessing whether A.I. could solve a more immediate problem. The U.S. military was collecting so much data — drone footage, satellite imagery, intercepted signals — that nobody could make sense of it all.
“There was nothing in any of the research labs in the military that were capable of generating results in less than a couple of years,” General Shanahan said. “We had a problem we could not solve without A.I.”
In 2017, General Shanahan helped create Project Maven, a Defense Department effort for the military to incorporate A.I. into its systems. One aim was to work with Silicon Valley to build software to swiftly process images like drone footage for intelligence purposes. Google was tapped to help.
But the project quickly ran into hurdles. The Pentagon’s procurement system, built around legacy contractors and long timelines, slowed things down.
When word spread inside Google about Project Maven, employees also protested, saying a company that had once pledged “Don’t be evil” should not help identify targets for drone strikes. Google eventually backed away from the project.
In 2019, Palantir, a data analytics company co-founded by the tech investor Peter Thiel, took over Maven. New defense tech start-ups like Anduril also emerged, supplying the federal government with A.I.-backed sensor towers along the southern U.S. border.
In China, Beijing pushed commercial tech companies toward defense partnerships in a strategy called “civil-military fusion.” Private firms were drawn into military procurement, joint research and other work with defense institutions. Companies working on drones and unmanned boats found growing military demand for their technologies.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 turned theory into reality.
Outgunned, outspent and outnumbered, Ukraine held off Russia with an improvised arsenal of cheap technology. Hobbyist racing drones were used to attack Russian positions on the front lines, eventually becoming more lethal than artillery and, in some cases, gaining autonomous capabilities. Remote-controlled boats kept Russia’s Black Sea fleet pinned down.
Russia adapted as well. Its Lancet drone, which was initially piloted by humans, has incorporated autonomous targeting features.
“The four years of brutality on the battlefield in Ukraine has served as a laboratory for the world,” said Mr. Horowitz, the former Pentagon official.
In recent months, Ukraine began sharing its troves of battlefield data with Palantir and other firms so A.I. systems can better learn to fight wars.
Across Europe, where governments are aiming to diminish their reliance on the American military, the lessons from Ukraine resounded. In February, Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Poland said they would develop a joint air defense system to guard against drones.
China also advanced. At the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, Norinco, one of the country’s main defense manufacturers, revealed multiple weapons with A.I. capabilities. One of its systems showed an entire brigade, including armored vehicles and drones, which were controlled and operated by A.I.
Another craft, unveiled by the state-run Aviation Industry Corporation of China, was a 16-ton jet-powered drone designed to serve as a flying aircraft carrier that could deploy dozens of smaller drones midflight.
‘Left Click, Right Click’
A week after American and Israeli forces struck Iran in February, a senior Pentagon official gave a glimpse into what computerized warfare now looks like at a conference livestreamed by Palantir.
A satellite feed showed a warehouse. With the click of a mouse, an officer selected a row of white trucks parked outside to target in real time. In seconds, the A.I. software suggested a weapon, calculated fuel and ammunition needs, weighed the cost and generated a strike plan.
It was the present-day version of Project Maven, which General Shanahan had started and was now run by Palantir and powered by commercial A.I. The system analyzed intelligence from various sources, generated target lists ranked by priority and recommended weapons, all but eliminating the lag between identifying a target and destroying it.
Embedded with a military version of Claude, the chatbot made by the A.I. firm Anthropic, Maven helped generate thousands of targets in the opening weeks of the Iran campaign, a pace that Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, attributed in part to “advanced A.I. tools.”
Cameron Stanley, the Defense Department’s chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, who spoke at Palantir’s conference, said that what Maven was doing was “revolutionary.” Human involvement amounted to “left click, right click, left click,” he said.
The claims about Maven’s abilities might be overstated and much of the American advantage came from the scale of data flowing in and the skills of the people using it, said Emelia Probasco, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
“It’s not rocket science,” she said. “I suspect that China already has something like it.”
In a recent report analyzing thousands of People’s Liberation Army procurement documents, Ms. Probasco found that China was building systems that mirrored American ones. In one case, China was trying to replicate the Joint Fires Network, an American program set up to link sensors and weapons globally so a drone on one side of the world could cue a strike from the other.
In some areas, China clearly leads. Its manufacturing dominance means it can produce autonomous weapons at a scale the Pentagon cannot match.
Inside the Trump administration, the push for A.I. weapons has taken on an almost evangelical fervor. Last month, the Pentagon labeled Anthropic a security risk, partly because the company wanted to limit its technology’s use for automated weapons.
“We will win the A.I. race,” Jacob Helberg, the under secretary of state for economic affairs, said last month at the Hill & Valley Forum, an annual conference in Washington, which he co-founded to bridge Silicon Valley and the government.
At the conference, tech executives, investors and government officials cheered speakers who called for tech companies to give the military unfettered access to A.I.
Anduril’s Mr. Luckey argued that the A.I. arms buildup might prevent major wars. The logic mirrored the Cold War: If both sides knew what the machines could do, neither would risk finding out.
“Conflicts between superpowers will similarly deteriorate if you can build the things that deter warfare effectively enough,” he said.
Yet deterrence assumes rationality, while A.I. weapons are designed to move faster than human reason. In exercises dating to 2020, researchers explored how autonomous systems could accelerate escalation and erode human control — with some alarming results.
In one scenario, a system operated by the United States and Japan responded to a missile launch from North Korea by autonomously firing an unexpected counterattack.
“The speed of autonomous systems led to inadvertent escalation,” said the report by analysts at RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization that works with the military.
General Shanahan, who retired from the military in 2020 and is now a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank, said the race he had helped start kept him up at night. Governments must set clear boundaries before the technology outruns their control, he said.
“There is a risk of an escalatory spiral where we’re in danger of fielding untested, unsafe and unproven systems if we’re not careful, because we each feel like the other side is hiding something from us,” he said.
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17) High Gas Prices Won’t End Even if the War Does
By Mark Finley, Mr. Finley is an energy fellow at the Baker Institute at Rice University, April 12, 2026
Aleksey Kondratyev for The New York Times
The cease-fire announced Tuesday night by President Trump has been greeted enthusiastically by oil traders, who quickly pushed crude futures contract prices below $100 a barrel. But don’t expect gasoline prices to fall sharply because the bombing might have stopped. Oil actually available today overseas can cost nearly $150 a barrel.
Iran insists that, for now, tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz must continue to seek its approval. More important for prices, Iran’s leaders have made it clear that shipping traffic is likely to remain well below prewar levels.
This will extend the disruption that sent gasoline prices above $4 a gallon nationally in March. If prices remain at this level, American families will pay on average more than $1,000 more annually for gasoline according to my calculations, a significant extra expense for families already struggling with affordability — and a potentially influential factor in the fall’s midterm elections. A 21.2 percent increase in gas prices in March helped push the annual inflation rate to 3.3 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The overall impact of the current price shock, and its aftermath, on the U.S. economy will not be as bad as the disruptions of the 1970s and 1980s, because the United States has become such a large oil producer. Our economy has also become much more efficient in using energy over the decades. But that is not much consolation for consumers who are shelling out more of their disposable dollars to drive to work or to shop.
The oil market still faces geopolitical, logistical and economic speed bumps. Before the war, some 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz each day. That’s about 20 percent of the global supply, making this by far the largest supply break in the history of the world oil market, dwarfing the OPEC Oil Embargo, the Suez crisis and the previous Persian Gulf wars.
That lost inventory can’t be easily replaced anytime soon. There’s still a war on, too: Ukrainian attacks may further limit Russian oil exports — and keep pressure on prices.
Even in a best-case scenario, the six-week supply bottleneck since the Iran war began on Feb. 28 — and the lengthy shipping voyages involved — means that we will face an extended period of adjustment before prices normalize. Keep in mind, too, that “normal” has been redefined. We now inhabit a world that seems a lot more perilous than the one that existed on Feb. 27.
These lingering threats to the oil trade mean that a risk premium is likely to persist. Owners of oil tankers will be paying a lot more in insurance. To the extent that oil and natural gas facilities in the region were damaged in the war — including Iranian attacks on facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and elsewhere after the cease-fire was announced — supplies could remain below prewar levels until repairs are completed.
That too, keeps upward pressure on prices. And obviously, any relapse in fighting or further interruption of flows through the strait will quickly put us back to where we were.
Mr. Trump has rightly noted that the United States is the world’s largest oil producer and that we export more than we import. That didn’t stop fuel prices from surging because oil is a global marketplace and prices reflect the bigger picture. Iran’s closure of the strait affected Asian countries most quickly, because that’s where most Persian Gulf supplies are destined. But as those countries have desperately sought other supplies, that disruption — and the higher prices that come with it — arrived at our shores.
As much as the price of gasoline has risen, prices of diesel and jet fuel have risen even faster, with diesel nearing $5.70 a gallon. About a quarter of the Gulf’s oil exports are refined products such as diesel, so losing that supply has boosted prices for many refined products well beyond the increase in crude.
Those extra costs are showing up in everything that gets moved around the country, which is why the U.S. Postal Service, Amazon, FedEx and UPS have said that they are tacking on fuel surcharges. Companies that use oil in the manufacturing process are also paying up. So, too, are farmers who buy diesel fuel and imported fertilizers that are derived using natural gas.
Surprisingly, American oil producers don’t seem to be scrambling to ramp up supply to help offset the Middle East outages. A recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that fewer than a quarter of the companies operating in its district plan to significantly increase drilling this year. (Those looking to ramp up drilling are predominantly smaller companies, though.) Perhaps the oil producers in the Permian Basin in the American Southwest will enjoy a profit lift until there is more clarity about the oil producers in the Middle East and the durability of higher prices.
Trying to explain why oil prices have or have not moved in line with expectations is always a fool’s errand. The market is inscrutable — and a terrible predictor of price moves. One thing we do know, though, is that we can’t separate ourselves from the global marketplace. For American families and businesses, it means that if something goes wrong, anywhere, oil prices go up everywhere.
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