Bay . Area . United . Against . War                     
Local Actions and Campaigns:



Good Anti-War Calendars:

  • Next BAUAW Meeting:


    Recent BAUAW Newsletter Posts:
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - MONDAY, JANUARY 15, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - SUNDAY, JANUARY 14, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - SATURDAY, JANUARY 13, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - FRIDAY, JANUARY 12, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - FRIDAY, JANUARY 12, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - THURSDAY, JANUARY 11, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 10, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - TUESDAY, JANUARY 9, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - MONDAY, JANUARY 8, 2007
  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER - MONDAY, JANUARY 8, 2007

    Archives:
    09/05/2004 - 09/11/2004 09/12/2004 - 09/18/2004 09/19/2004 - 09/25/2004 09/26/2004 - 10/02/2004 10/03/2004 - 10/09/2004 10/10/2004 - 10/16/2004 10/17/2004 - 10/23/2004 10/24/2004 - 10/30/2004 10/31/2004 - 11/06/2004 11/07/2004 - 11/13/2004 11/14/2004 - 11/20/2004 11/21/2004 - 11/27/2004 11/28/2004 - 12/04/2004 12/05/2004 - 12/11/2004 12/12/2004 - 12/18/2004 12/19/2004 - 12/25/2004 12/26/2004 - 01/01/2005 01/02/2005 - 01/08/2005 01/09/2005 - 01/15/2005 01/16/2005 - 01/22/2005 01/23/2005 - 01/29/2005 02/13/2005 - 02/19/2005 02/20/2005 - 02/26/2005 02/27/2005 - 03/05/2005 03/06/2005 - 03/12/2005 03/13/2005 - 03/19/2005 03/20/2005 - 03/26/2005 03/27/2005 - 04/02/2005 04/03/2005 - 04/09/2005 04/10/2005 - 04/16/2005 04/17/2005 - 04/23/2005 04/24/2005 - 04/30/2005 05/01/2005 - 05/07/2005 05/08/2005 - 05/14/2005 05/15/2005 - 05/21/2005 05/22/2005 - 05/28/2005 05/29/2005 - 06/04/2005 06/05/2005 - 06/11/2005 06/12/2005 - 06/18/2005 06/19/2005 - 06/25/2005 06/26/2005 - 07/02/2005 07/03/2005 - 07/09/2005 07/10/2005 - 07/16/2005 07/17/2005 - 07/23/2005 07/24/2005 - 07/30/2005 07/31/2005 - 08/06/2005 08/07/2005 - 08/13/2005 08/14/2005 - 08/20/2005 08/21/2005 - 08/27/2005 08/28/2005 - 09/03/2005 09/04/2005 - 09/10/2005 09/11/2005 - 09/17/2005 09/18/2005 - 09/24/2005 09/25/2005 - 10/01/2005 10/16/2005 - 10/22/2005 11/06/2005 - 11/12/2005 02/12/2006 - 02/18/2006 02/19/2006 - 02/25/2006 03/05/2006 - 03/11/2006 03/12/2006 - 03/18/2006 03/19/2006 - 03/25/2006 03/26/2006 - 04/01/2006 04/02/2006 - 04/08/2006 04/09/2006 - 04/15/2006 04/16/2006 - 04/22/2006 04/23/2006 - 04/29/2006 04/30/2006 - 05/06/2006 05/07/2006 - 05/13/2006 05/21/2006 - 05/27/2006 05/28/2006 - 06/03/2006 06/04/2006 - 06/10/2006 06/11/2006 - 06/17/2006 06/18/2006 - 06/24/2006 07/02/2006 - 07/08/2006 07/23/2006 - 07/29/2006 07/30/2006 - 08/05/2006 08/06/2006 - 08/12/2006 08/13/2006 - 08/19/2006 08/20/2006 - 08/26/2006 08/27/2006 - 09/02/2006 09/03/2006 - 09/09/2006 09/10/2006 - 09/16/2006 09/17/2006 - 09/23/2006 09/24/2006 - 09/30/2006 10/01/2006 - 10/07/2006 10/08/2006 - 10/14/2006 10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006 10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006 10/29/2006 - 11/04/2006 11/05/2006 - 11/11/2006 11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006 11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006 11/26/2006 - 12/02/2006 12/03/2006 - 12/09/2006 12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006 12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006 12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006 12/31/2006 - 01/06/2007 01/07/2007 - 01/13/2007 01/14/2007 - 01/20/2007

  • BAUAW NEWSLETTER
    Subscribe/Unsubscribe

    Wednesday, January 17, 2007
     

    BAUAW NEWSLETTER - WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 17, 2007

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    HELP KEEP JROTC AND THE MILITARY OUT OF OUR SCHOOLS
    COME TO THE NEXT BOARD OF EDUCATION MEETING
    AND SPEAK UP!
    TUESDAY, JANUARY 23, 2007, 7:00 P.M.
    Board of Education
    555 Franklin St
    San Francisco
    415/241-6427
    To get on the speakers list call the day before between the hours
    of 8:30 a.m., and 4:00 p.m. Or on the day of the meeting, Tuesday,
    January 23rd from 8:30 a.m., and 3:00 p.m.

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    RALLY AND MARCH TO END THE WAR ON IRAQ
    SATURDAY, JANUARY 27, 2007, 12 NOON
    POWELL AND MARKET STREETS, S.F.
    Troops out of Iraq NOW!
    Stop racism against Arabs and Muslims!
    End the Occupation of Palestine!

    Over 3,000 dead American soldiers, hundreds of thousands
    of dead Iraqis. It's time to put a stop to the war machine.
    Millions of people voted to get the Republicans out and
    end the war, but we can't leave it up to the Democrats
    to do the only reasonable thing:
    BRING ALL THE TROOPS HOME NOW FROM IRAQ!

    President Bush just announced his intent to escalate the
    number of troops in Iraq by over 20,000 more troops.

    It's time to get the anti-war movement back in the streets!
    On January 27, hundreds of thousands of people will march
    in Washington, DC to demand an end to the war.

    We're bringing the same message to the streets of San Francisco.
    Make your own signs and banners and march with your friends,
    family, co-workers, class-mates, church, union or organization.
    Join us to show Bush and the new Democratic Congress
    that the anti-war movement is back.

    There will be one last organizing meeting on Saturday,
    January 20, 2 PM @ 110 Capp St., and everybody is encouraged
    to attend. Please forward this far and wide and tell everybody
    you know!

    For more information, call 510-484-5242 or email
    j27committee@gmail.com
    or check out
    www.myspace.com/januarytwentyseventh

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    MARCH AND RALLY IN SAN FRANCISCO
    SUNDAY, MARCH 18, 2007
    (The annual St. Patrick's Day Parade is taking
    place on Sat., March 17 in SF.)
    ASSEMBLE 12:00 NOON
    JUSTIN HERMAN PLAZA -
    MARCH TO CIVIC CENTER
    For more information:
    http://www.actionsf.org/#local4
    answer@actionsf.org
    Phone: 415-821-6545
    Fax: 415-821-5782

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    ARTICLES IN FULL:
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    1) Picking Up the Pieces
    New York Times Editorial
    January 14, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/opinion/14sun1.html?hp

    2) Gunboat Diplomacy: The Watch on the Gulf
    By JOHN KIFNER
    January 14, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/weekinreview/14kifn.html?ref=weekinreview
    Gunboat Diplomacy: The Watch on the Gulf (map)
    http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/01/13/weekinreview/20070114_MARSH_GRAPHIC.html

    3) Nomadic Herdsmen Innocent Targets of Bombing in Somalia, Says OXFAM
    By Joe De Capua
    Washington
    12 January 2007
    http://www.voanews.com/english/Africa/2007-01-12-voa26.cfm

    4) The Best We Can Hope For
    By HELENE COOPER
    WASHINGTON
    January 14, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/weekinreview/14cooper.html?ref=weekinreview

    5) Busywork for Nuclear Scientists
    New York Times Editorial
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/opinion/15mon1.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

    6) Democrats Are Unified in Opposition to Troop Increase,
    but Split Over What to Do About It
    By JIM RUTENBERG and PATRICK HEALY
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/washington/politicsspecial/15troops.html?ref=world

    7) U.S. and Iraqis Are Wrangling Over War Plans
    By JOHN F. BURNS
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/world/middleeast/15baghdad.html?ref=world

    8) Opening a New Front in the War, Against Iranians in Iraq
    News Analysis
    By DAVID E. SANGER
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/washington/politicsspecial/15strategy.html

    9) New York Rabbi Finds Friends in Iran and Enemies at Home
    By FERNANDA SANTOS
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/nyregion/15rabbi.html?ref=nyregion

    10) Endgame:
    The Biggest Police Operation in U.S. History
    by Richard D. Vogel
    January 15, 2007
    [A detailed map is also at this site...bw]
    http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/vogel150107.html

    11) Worried about war, LI parents restrict access to recruiters
    BY DENISE M. BONILLA
    Newsday Staff Writer
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-enskul0114,0,7612715.story?coll=ny-top-headlines

    12) The Smithfield Strike Victory
    By The Editors of Socialist Viewpoint Magazine
    http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/

    13) Community Work
    By Bonnie Weinstein
    Socialist Viewpoint Magazine
    http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/janfeb_07/janfeb_07_07.html

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    1) Picking Up the Pieces
    New York Times Editorial
    January 14, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/opinion/14sun1.html?hp

    It was surreal how disconnected President Bush was the other night,
    both from Iraq’s horrifying reality and America’s anguish over this
    unnecessary, mismanaged and now unwinnable war. Indeed, most
    Americans seem far ahead of the president. They understand that
    what the country urgently needs is for Mr. Bush to chart a way out
    of Iraq that also limits the chaos that will be left behind.

    The president’s disconnect goes far to explain the harshly critical
    reaction of Congress and the public to his plan to further bleed
    America’s overstretched forces by sending some 20,000 additional
    troops in an attempt to impose peace on Baghdad’s vengeful streets.
    He proposes to do that without any enforceable commitments
    from the Iraqi government that it will take the necessary political
    steps that are the only hope for tamping down a spiraling civil war.

    There are no really satisfying answers in Iraq, since all of the
    remaining options are bad. Still, some are notably worse than others,
    and Mr. Bush has come up with possibly the worst. He would mortgage
    thousands more American lives and what remains of Washington’s
    credibility in the region to a destructively sectarian Shiite government
    that he seems unwilling or unable to influence or restrain.



    Unlike Mr. Bush’s views on the American military presence in Iraq,
    our views have evolved as the evident realities on the ground
    have changed. At the outset, although we opposed Mr. Bush’s
    invasion, we hoped the United States military could provide
    enough security to allow an elected government to build the
    foundations of national unity and eventual democracy.

    As it became increasingly clear that Iraqi political leaders had
    other, less noble intentions, we still hoped that a substantial
    American military presence could be used to shield innocent
    civilians from the growing violence, train reliable and professional
    Iraqi security forces to take over that task, and exert leverage
    on Iraqi leaders to follow a less divisive and destructive course.

    Now, with Mr. Bush unwilling or unable to persuade Prime
    Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki to take the minimum steps
    necessary to justify any deeper American commitment, we
    recognize that even that has become unrealistic. Mr. Maliki
    gave the latest White House plan an even chillier reception
    than it received in the United States Congress, boycotting
    a Thursday news conference in Baghdad announcing it. He
    apparently would have preferred to see American forces sent
    to fight Sunni insurgents in western Anbar Province, leaving
    Baghdad as a free-fire zone for his Shiite militia partners.

    But even knowing all that, America cannot simply wash its
    hands of Iraq and go home. The region’s problems, many of
    them made worse by this war, are unavoidably America’s
    problems as well. For starters, Iraq is in imminent danger
    of violently breaking apart, driving millions of refugees
    across its borders — who will bring with them their ethnic
    grievances, and in some cases their weapons — and potentially
    unleashing a chain reaction of regional conflicts that could
    draw in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and perhaps others as well.



    Whatever else happens, Iran has already become more
    formidable and dangerous. Where it once had a hostile
    Saddam Hussein on its western border, it now has a friendly
    Shiite fundamentalist government. Its other longtime enemy,
    the United States, has had its diplomatic and military clout
    severely diminished by this war.

    The expanding power of a revolutionary, Shiite Iran is
    profoundly unsettling to the conservative Sunni-led governments
    in most of the Arab Middle East, which have been America’s
    traditional allies in the region. If the United States is to recoup
    any of its standing and influence there, it will have to find
    a way to contain the chaos in Iraq. And it will have to do
    a lot more to address other concerns of these governments
    and their people, starting with a genuine and sustained
    effort to mediate a peace agreement between Israel and
    the Palestinians.

    If Mr. Bush does persist in sending more American troops
    to Baghdad, despite Congress’s amply justified opposition,
    he will have to establish clear lines of command that assure
    that those troops can enter the strongholds of the Shiite militias
    responsible for much of the violence without militia leaders’
    being tipped off by allies in the Iraqi government.

    And so long as any American troops remain in Iraq, Mr. Bush
    must put serious pressure on Mr. Maliki to support the troops’
    efforts with a genuine program of national reconciliation. That
    must include, at a minimum, ridding the police and other security
    services of killers, torturers and criminals and disarming
    all sectarian militias.

    The government must also assure that Iraqi oil revenues are
    fairly shared out among the entire Iraqi population. And it
    must move quickly to offer an amnesty to Sunni insurgents
    willing to put down their weapons, and narrow the legal
    restrictions on former Baath Party members so that Sunni
    professionals can once again fully participate in Iraqi national life.

    These benchmarks should be accompanied by fixed timelines.
    And they must be accompanied with a clear message that the
    United States is prepared to withdraw its troops if the Iraqis
    continue to refuse to take responsibility for their own future.
    Mr. Bush and other American officials need to make clear that
    as much as the United States will suffer from a complete collapse
    in Iraq, Iraq’s leaders will suffer far worse from the loss of their
    American protectors.

    Mr. Bush should reinforce that message by convening a conference
    of all of Iraq’s neighbors to discuss how they can help stabilize
    Iraq — and what they can do to contain the wider chaos should
    it come. With nearly two million Iraqis already seeking refuge,
    mainly in Syria and Jordan, it is far past time for American
    officials to begin their own planning and relief efforts.

    If Mr. Bush refuses to deliver this ultimatum to Mr. Maliki,
    Congress will have to do so in his stead. That’s not the usual
    division of labor between the executive and legislative branches,
    but it is one that Mr. Bush has made necessary by his refusal
    to face realities. The potential consequences of his failed
    leadership are so serious that neither the new Democratic
    majorities in Congress, nor the public at large, can afford
    the luxury of merely criticizing from the sidelines.



    So far, Congress is off to an encouraging start, holding substantive
    oversight hearings and asking probing questions of administration
    officials for the first time in too many years. Similarly encouraging
    has been the bipartisan character of this reinvigorated oversight.
    The Congress should continue asking hard questions. And it must
    insist on real answers before acting on any new requests for money
    to support Mr. Bush’s plans to send more troops to Baghdad.
    Congress has the authority to attach conditions to that money,
    imposing benchmarks and timetables on Mr. Bush, who then
    would be forced to impose them on the Iraqi government.

    One immediate step could be a set of bipartisan resolutions
    spelling out the broad policy directions Congress expects the
    president to pursue on Iraq. That would send a useful message
    to the American people that lawmakers are listening to their
    concerns, if Mr. Bush is not, and also to Iraq’s leaders.

    It’s now up to Congress to force the president to live up to his
    constitutional responsibilities and rescue this country from the
    consequences of one of its worst strategic blunders in modern
    times.

    History will surely blame Mr. Bush for leading America into Iraq,
    but it will blame Congress if it does not act to push him onto
    a more realistic path.

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    2) Gunboat Diplomacy: The Watch on the Gulf
    By JOHN KIFNER
    January 14, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/weekinreview/14kifn.html?ref=weekinreview
    Gunboat Diplomacy: The Watch on the Gulf (map)
    http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/01/13/weekinreview/20070114_MARSH_GRAPHIC.html

    THE United States Central Command stretches across some of the
    world’s most volatile real estate from Kenya in the southwest through
    all of the Middle East to Kazakhstan in the northeast. It encompasses
    two active combat theaters: Afghanistan, which is landlocked, and Iraq,
    with a tiny uncontested shoreline.

    In both, the main fighting is counterinsurgency, largely the task of light
    infantry like the Marines and the Army’s 10th Mountain or 82nd
    and 101st Airborne Divisions. CentCom, as it is known, has always
    been run by a four-star general from the Army or Marines.

    So why name a sailor — Adm. William J. Fallon — as CentCom’s new
    commander, as President Bush did earlier this month?

    One word: Iran.

    Admiral Fallon’s appointment comes amid a series of indications
    that the Bush administration is increasingly focused on putting
    pressure on Iran and, perhaps, veering toward open confrontation.
    They include the dispatching of a second Navy carrier battle group
    to the Persian Gulf; a blunt singling out of Iran in Mr. Bush’s speech
    Wednesday night, warning that America will “seek out and destroy
    the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our
    enemies in Iraq,” followed by a dawn raid Thursday on an Iranian
    office in the Kurdish city of Erbil in which five Iranians were seized
    along with files and computers.

    The important thing is that Admiral Fallon is a naval aviator.

    Now the ranking officer in the Pacific — the Navy’s traditional fief —
    his résumé includes 24 years of flight assignments beginning with
    combat in Vietnam and including commanding the air wing on the
    carrier Theodore Roosevelt in the first Iraq war.

    Iran thus far has been the principal beneficiary of the American
    enterprise in Iraq, exerting influence over the Shiite parties it
    nurtured in exile and expanding its own regional prestige. The
    Iranians’ confidence and defiance have been bolstered by the
    knowledge that American ground forces are stretched near the
    breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    But introducing more air and sea power, with their long reach,
    in the gulf could change the military balance and options.

    It is classic gunboat diplomacy.

    The American naval presence in the gulf is the Fifth Fleet, based
    in Manama, Bahrain. It usually numbers around 20 ships, capable
    of putting 15,000 sailors and marines afloat. Its principal component
    is a carrier battle group, so adding a second will, in effect, double
    its air and sea power.

    A carrier battle group typically consists of a Nimitz-class carrier
    like the Eisenhower, a floating city so huge one can see the horizon
    rise and fall without feeling the swell of the sea, and capable
    of carrying as many as 85 aircraft, along with protective escorts.
    These usually include two guided missile cruisers, two destroyers,
    a frigate, two submarines and a supply ship. These smaller vessels
    could be used for other tasks, like escorting tankers through the
    narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s
    oil passes, or enforcing sanctions or a blockade on Iran.

    The Fifth Fleet also normally has a Marine landing force of 2,200,
    roughly equally divided between ground troops and air support,
    aboard three specialized ships that can be used in raids or other
    operations.

    Will this cow the Iranians? Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council
    on Foreign Relations, thinks not. More likely, he said, is that “the
    more radical militants will use this to berate the more moderate”
    and “the notion of accommodating Western audiences will diminish.”

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    3) Nomadic Herdsmen Innocent Targets
    of Bombing in Somalia, Says OXFAM
    By Joe De Capua
    Washington
    12 January 2007
    http://www.voanews.com/english/Africa/2007-01-12-voa26.cfm

    The relief organization OXFAM says nomadic herdsmen have been
    innocent targets of bombing in the south of the country. Beatrice
    Karanja, a spokesperson for OXFAM in Nairobi, tells VOA the
    bombings have affected some of the agency’s humanitarian
    water and sanitation programs.

    “Oxfam has been receiving reports from our partner organizations
    in Somalia that nomadic herdsmen have been targeted in recent
    bombing raids. And what this has been is bombs have hit vital water
    sources, as well as the nomads and their animals, who had been
    gathering around large fires at night in order to ward off mosquitoes.
    What OXFAM is concerned about is that under international law
    there’s a duty to distinguish between military and civilian targets.
    But this principle isn’t being adhered to and eventually, as we see,
    innocent people are paying the price,” she says.

    Karanja says OXFAM and other humanitarian organizations need
    greater access in Somalia to help those who’ve been displaced
    or affected in other ways by the recent fighting.

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    4) The Best We Can Hope For
    By HELENE COOPER
    WASHINGTON
    January 14, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/weekinreview/14cooper.html?ref=weekinreview

    NOBODY will quibble with President Bush’s line Wednesday night that
    in Iraq, “Victory will not look like the ones our fathers and grandfathers
    achieved; there will be no surrender ceremony on the deck of a battleship.”

    Of course, that calls to mind his victory landing on the deck of the
    carrier Abraham Lincoln off the coast of California in May 2003,
    which he followed with a speech declaring that, “in the battle of
    Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed.”

    But let’s not digress. Mr. Bush has now scaled back his strategy
    for victory to a strategy for the best-we-can-hope-for. So, it must
    be asked, what exactly is the best we can hope for?

    “In the best-case scenario, we’ll be in Iraq for 15 or 20 years,” said
    Stephen Biddle, author of “Military Power: Explaining Victory and
    Defeat in Modern Battle.” He offers the example of the Balkans,
    where everyone seems to have forgotten about the United States
    troops who have been there for years, helping keep a peace
    brokered in Dayton, Ohio, in 1995.

    Under the best result Mr. Biddle said he could imagine, the
    United States would cajole or force warring Shiites, Sunnis
    and Kurds to agree to the standard-cookbook negotiated
    ending to a civil war. There would be some kind of power-
    sharing deal among the key combatants, yielding an uneasy
    cease-fire that would have to be policed for a long time by
    outside peacekeepers, since no warring side would trust another.

    Sounds like paradise, doesn’t it? Except, Mr. Biddle said,
    “If I had to bet my house mortgage on a scenario, it wouldn’t
    be on that one.”

    Before we get to the outcome on which Mr. Biddle is willing
    to bet his piece of the American dream, we should, at least,
    examine the second, optimistic resolution that Iraq experts
    offer. This is the ending which, they said, President Bush
    should embrace with both arms — if he can get it.

    Remember the Spanish Civil War? The best America can hope
    for, some experts said, would be for Iraq to turn into today’s
    version of the Spanish Civil War.

    For readers without immediate access to Wikipedia, the
    Spanish Civil War lasted three years, from 1936 to 1939,
    when the Nationalists, led by Francisco Franco, defeated the
    Loyalists of the Second Spanish Republic. The death toll was
    huge — estimates put it between 500,000 and one million.
    People in just about every European country were passionate
    about the fight: the Loyalists got weapons and volunteers
    from the Soviet Union, while the Nationalists received help
    from Italy, Germany and Portugal.

    But, in the end, the Spanish Civil War stayed Spanish. The
    Europeans sent money and arms and even volunteers, but
    they didn’t let the war engulf the continent. (Probably because
    the continent was busy getting engulfed in World War II, but
    let’s not be too technical.)

    The biggest worry in Iraq is not that Iraq will descend into
    a civil war — most experts say that is a done deal — but
    that an Iraqi civil war will not stay Iraqi. The fear is that
    a civil war will engulf the entire region, with Saudi Arabia
    and Jordan defending the Sunnis, Iran backing the Shiites,
    and Iraqi Kurds declaring their independence, a move sure
    to draw in Turkey, which has its own restive Kurdish population.

    “There’s a difference between the Saudis providing help and
    them actually sending in forces; there’s a difference between
    everybody playing in the troubled waters of Iraq and actually
    allowing it to spread beyond Iraq’s borders,” said Gideon Rose,
    managing editor of Foreign Affairs magazine. “Given the
    alternative, the Spanish Civil War was better than World War I.”

    The Spanish Civil War script doesn’t bode well for Iraq itself.
    The death toll would be enormous, and Iraqi Sunnis, who make
    up only about 20 percent of the population, would face particular
    hardship. But such a war wouldn’t become World War III. The
    United States would eventually pull its troops out, the Iranians
    would finance the Shiites, and the Saudis would support the
    Sunnis, but neither neighbor would engage militarily itself.

    America’s image abroad would suffer a blow, but not a fatal one,
    and in the end, the United States would still be the sole world
    power. “That’s the best we can expect,” Mr. Rose said. “Disaster
    in Iraq, problems in the Middle East and a several-year period
    to recover the losses in American foreign policy.”

    Critics have been unstinting in their disapproval of Mr. Bush’s
    plan to send more than 20,000 additional American troops,
    mostly to Baghdad, where they will embed with Iraqi brigades.

    The idea is that the presence of the American troops will prevent
    the Iraqi soldiers, who are mostly Shiite, from slaughtering the
    minority Sunnis. Eventually, the thinking goes, the Sunni
    population in Baghdad will come to trust the Iraqi soldiers,
    and reconciliation will happen between Iraqi Sunnis, Shiites
    and Kurds.

    The problem with Mr. Bush’s plan, said Vali Nasr, a senior
    fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, is that it doesn’t
    provide enough American troops to do much more than stay
    the course, to use Mr. Bush’s now-abandoned lexicon. The
    way Mr. Nasr sees it, 20,000 additional troops is too few to
    change the dynamic on the ground, but enough to escalate
    tensions further.

    “The best we can hope for is pretty much the same thing
    we’ve had for the last year,” said Mr. Nasr, author of “The
    Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future.”
    “More of the same for another two years, but keep in mind that
    it could potentially get much worse.”

    That worst-case scenario is pretty scary, Mr. Biddle said. In that
    picture, the United States would pull its troops out of Iraq, the
    civil war would accelerate, and the Shiites, financed by Iran,
    would conquer one Sunni village after another, driving the
    Sunnis over the borders and into refugee camps in Saudi
    Arabia and Jordan.

    There would be a huge refugee crisis in the Sunni Arab countries,
    where a dispossessed, bitter and highly politicized refugee
    population would appeal to Saudi and Jordanian rulers to
    make a last stand for Sunnis in Iraq. But since it would have
    taken about 5 to 10 years to get to this point, guess who,
    by then, would have acquired a nuclear bomb?

    Iran.

    “In the worst case, you could be looking at a couple of nuclear
    weapons dropped on major cities — Baghdad, Riyadh, Tehran,”
    Mr. Biddle said.

    That possibility makes the one that Mr. Biddle views as most
    likely seem almost palatable. Here it is:

    “We get out, the civil war escalates,” Mr. Biddle said. “It’s funded
    by all sides but they don’t send their own troops across the border.
    The war just bumps along for 5 or 10 years and everybody eventually
    gets so weary that diplomacy finally gets going, and there’s a cease-
    fire, power-sharing deal. During that period, Iraqi oil output crashes,
    there’s huge instability in the region and oil prices rise. And there’s
    a humanitarian catastrophe in Iraq.

    “That’s not a very happy scenario,” Mr. Biddle acknowledged. “But it
    beats the heck out of nuclear war in the Mideast.”

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    5) Busywork for Nuclear Scientists
    New York Times Editorial
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/opinion/15mon1.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

    The Bush administration is eager to start work on a new nuclear
    warhead with all sorts of admirable qualities: sturdy, reliable and
    secure from terrorists. To sweeten the deal, officials say that if they
    can replace the current arsenal with Reliable Replacement Warheads
    (what could sound more comforting?), they probably won’t have
    to keep so many extra warheads to hedge against technical failure.
    If you’re still not sold, the warhead comes with something of
    a guarantee — that scientists can build the new bombs without
    ever testing them.

    Let the buyer beware. While the program has gotten very little
    attention here, it is a public-relations disaster in the making
    overseas. Suspicions that the United States is actually trying to
    build up its nuclear capabilities are undercutting Washington’s
    arguments for restraining the nuclear appetites of Iran and
    North Korea.

    Then there’s the tens of billions it is likely to cost. And the most
    important question: Nearly two decades after the country stopped
    building nuclear weapons, does it really need a new one? The
    answer, emphatically, is no. This is a make-work program
    championed by the weapons laboratories and belatedly
    by the Pentagon, which hasn’t been able to get Congress
    to pay for its other nuclear fantasies.

    The Rumsfeld team’s first choice was for a nuclear “bunker
    buster” to go after deeply buried targets. The Pentagon got
    concerned about “aging” warheads only after it was clear that
    even the Republican-led Congress, or at least one intrepid
    House subcommittee chairman, considered the bunker buster
    too Strangelovian to finance.

    One crucial argument for the new program took a major hit
    in November when the Jason — a prestigious panel of scientists
    that advises the government on weapons — reported that most
    of the plutonium triggers in the current arsenal can be expected
    to last for 100 years. Since the oldest weapons are less than
    50 years old, supporters of the new warhead have fallen back
    on warnings that other bomb components are also aging,
    and that the nuclear labs need the work to attract and train
    the best scientists. But the labs are already spending billions
    on studying and preserving the current arsenal.

    Then there’s that guarantee that there will be no need for
    testing — one of the few arms-control taboos President Bush
    hasn’t broken yet. While experts debate whether the labs can
    really build a weapon without testing it, the more important
    question is whether any president would stake America’s
    security on an untested arsenal.

    America would be much safer if the president focused on
    reducing the number of old nuclear weapons still deployed
    by the United States and the other nuclear powers. The new
    Congress should stop this program before any more dollars
    are wasted, or more damage is done to America’s credibility.

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    6) Democrats Are Unified in Opposition to Troop Increase,
    but Split Over What to Do About It
    By JIM RUTENBERG and PATRICK HEALY
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/washington/politicsspecial/15troops.html?ref=world

    WASHINGTON, Jan. 14 — The White House sought Sunday to head
    off building pressure in Congress to cut off or limit financing
    for sending more troops to Iraq.

    But even as President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney made
    it clear that they would proceed with their plan to increase the
    United States military presence in Iraq in the face of opposition
    from the House and Senate, Democrats exhibited splits within
    their ranks over how aggressively to oppose the plan.

    Speaking on “This Week” on ABC News, Representative
    John P. Murtha of Pennsylvania, the chairman of the subcommittee
    on military appropriations in the House, said he expected
    Congress to move to restrict financing for new troop deployments
    — or at the very least tie approval to stringent conditions the White
    House would have to meet first.

    “If we have our way, there will be some substantial change and
    tremendous pressure put on this administration to change
    direction,” Mr. Murtha said.

    But Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, the new chairman of the
    Senate Armed Services Committee, said on CNN on Sunday that
    he did not believe Congress should “use the power of the purse”
    to halt the president’s plan and that it should go no further than
    approving nonbinding resolutions opposing it.

    While most Democratic leaders have not endorsed taking steps
    beyond seeking to pass nonbinding resolutions opposing the troop
    increase, pressure has been mounting in the past week from
    opponents of the war to take more direct and assertive action
    to block Mr. Bush.

    In an interview on “60 Minutes” that was broadcast Sunday night
    Mr. Bush said: “Listen, we’ve got people criticizing this plan before
    it’s had a chance to work. They’re saying, ‘We’re not even gonna
    fund this thing.’ ”

    “I will resist that,” he added.

    On “Fox News Sunday” Mr. Cheney acknowledged that Congress
    had fiscal oversight of the war but said, “You also cannot run
    a war by committee.”

    Mr. Cheney said the Democrats would be undercutting the troops
    if they moved to block the president’s plan, adding, “I have yet
    to hear a coherent policy out of the Democratic side with respect
    to an alternative.”

    Mr. Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, said on
    “Meet the Press” on NBC News that the White House had sufficient
    money in its control to deploy troops as planned, and he
    suggested that once they were in place, Congress would be
    reluctant to cut off financing.

    “I think once they get in harm’s way, Congress’s tradition is
    to support those troops,” Mr. Hadley said.

    The growing pressure on Democrats to confront the White House
    was highlighted by a speech delivered Sunday by John Edwards,
    the former Democratic senator from North Carolina who is
    seeking his party’s presidential nomination. Mr. Edwards, who
    voted to authorize the war when he was in the Senate in 2002
    but has since said that it was a mistake, said Congress had
    a moral duty to cut off financing.

    “If you’re in Congress and you know this war is going in the
    wrong direction, it is no longer enough to study your options
    and keep your own counsel,” Mr. Edwards said at Riverside Church
    in Manhattan, where the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. once gave
    a speech denouncing the American campaign in Vietnam. “Speak
    out, and stop this escalation now. You have the power to prohibit
    the president from spending any money to escalate the war — use it.”

    Mr. Edwards also called on fellow Democrats to support the
    immediate withdrawal of 50,000 troops.

    In making his speech, Mr. Edwards staked out antiwar turf in the
    nascent Democratic presidential primary contest while challenging
    others to do the same — most notably Senator Hillary Rodham
    Clinton of New York, who also voted to authorize military action
    in Iraq in 2002 but has yet to take a position on legislative options
    like withholding money. She visited Iraq on Saturday to speak with
    military commanders, and plans to explain her views in fuller detail
    when she returns Tuesday.

    Howard Wolfson, a senior adviser to Senator Clinton, criticized
    Mr. Edwards’s remarks by taking aim at the former senator’s image,
    promoted by aides during the last presidential election, as an optimistic
    and unifying figure. “In 2004 John Edwards used to constantly brag
    about running a positive campaign,” Mr. Wolfson said. “Today, he has
    unfortunately chosen to open his campaign with political attacks
    on Democrats who are fighting the Bush administration’s Iraq policy.”

    Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, another likely Democratic candidate
    and a longtime war critic, has stopped short of calling for a clamp
    on financing for Mr. Bush’s plan.

    While Congressional Democrats have been fairly unified in their
    opposition to the president’s plan, the splits that have emerged
    center on how to proceed against it. Some say that Democrats
    won control of Congress with promises to force change and have
    a responsibility to do so; others warn that the party could incite
    accusations of undercutting the troops by limiting funds for them.

    But with opinion polls showing overwhelming opposition to the
    president’s plan — and support for some kind of intervention by
    Congress — the trajectory over the past two weeks has moved
    toward more aggressive Congressional action.

    Two Democratic senators have backed away from earlier remarks
    in which they expressed openness to a temporary increase in troops:
    Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, who is the majority leader of the Senate,
    and Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, a declared candidate
    for the 2008 presidential election.

    Mr. Dodd said in a statement on Sunday that he planned to introduce
    a bill requiring Congressional authorization for the troop increase that
    would be similar — but not identical — to one that Senator Edward
    M. Kennedy of Massachusetts introduced Wednesday.

    Public frustration with the war, and political moves like Mr. Edwards’s
    on Sunday, will only heighten the pressure, especially on Democrats
    running for president, to put real limits or conditions on the White
    House war plan.

    Advisers to Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama — neither of whom is
    a declared candidate — said in interviews that the senators had
    yet to conclude that the financing issue was the best way to
    fight Mr. Bush.

    Mr. Obama, on “Face the Nation” on CBS News, said: “The president
    has already begun these additional deployments. We, unfortunately,
    are not going to be voting on funding for several weeks, perhaps
    months.”

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    7) U.S. and Iraqis Are Wrangling Over War Plans
    By JOHN F. BURNS
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/world/middleeast/15baghdad.html?ref=world

    This article was reported by John F. Burns, Sabrina Tavernise and
    Marc Santora, and written by Mr. Burns.

    BAGHDAD, Jan. 14 — Just days after President Bush unveiled a new
    war plan calling for more than 20,000 additional American troops
    in Iraq, the heart of the effort — a major push to secure the capital
    — faces some of its fiercest resistance from the very people it
    depends on for success: Iraqi government officials.

    American military officials have spent days huddled in meetings
    with Iraqi officers in a race to turn blueprints drawn up in Washington
    into a plan that will work on the ground in Baghdad. With the first
    American and Iraqi units dedicated to the plan due to be in place
    within weeks, time is short for setting details of what American
    officers view as the decisive battle of the war.

    But the signs so far have unnerved some Americans working on
    the plan, who have described a web of problems — ranging from
    a contested chain of command to how to protect American troops
    deployed in some of Baghdad’s most dangerous districts
    — that some fear could hobble the effort before it begins.

    First among the American concerns is a Shiite-led government
    that has been so dogmatic in its attitude that the Americans
    worry that they will be frustrated in their aim of cracking down
    equally on Shiite and Sunni extremists, a strategy President
    Bush has declared central to the plan.

    “We are implementing a strategy to embolden a government that
    is actually part of the problem,” said an American military official
    in Baghdad involved in talks over the plan. “We are being played
    like a pawn.”

    The American military’s misgivings came as new details emerged
    of the reconstruction portion of Mr. Bush’s plan, which calls for
    more than doubling the number of American-led reconstruction
    teams in Iraq to 22 and quintupling the number of American
    civilian reconstruction specialists to 500. [Page A7.]

    Compounding American doubts about the government’s
    willingness to go after Shiite extremists has been a behind-the-
    scenes struggle over the appointment of the Iraqi officer to
    fill the key post of operational commander for the Baghdad
    operation. In face of strong American skepticism, the Iraqi
    prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, has selected an officer
    from the Shiite heartland of southern Iraq who was virtually
    unknown to the Americans, and whose hard-edged demands
    for Iraqi primacy in the effort has deepened American anxieties.

    The Iraqi commander, Lt. Gen. Aboud Qanbar, will be part of
    what the Americans have described as a partnership between
    the two armies, with an American general, Maj. Gen. Joseph F. Fil Jr.,
    commander of the First Cavalry Division, working with General
    Aboud, and American and Iraqi officers twinned down the
    operational chain.

    For the Americans, accustomed to clear operational control, the
    partnership concept is troublesome — full of potential, some
    officers fear, for dispute with the Iraqis over tough issues like
    applying an equal hand against Shiite and Sunni gunmen.

    It remains unclear whether the prime minister will be in overall
    charge of the new crackdown, a demand the Iraqis have pressed
    since the plan was first discussed last month, American officials
    said. They said days of argument had led to a compromise under
    which General Qanbar would answer to a so-called crisis counsel,
    made up of Mr. Maliki, the ministers of defense and interior, Iraqi
    national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, and the top American
    military commander in Iraq.

    The Americans said that while they had reluctantly accepted General
    Qanbar, they had won concessions from the Iraqis in the appointment
    of two officers favored by the American command for the two deputy
    Iraqi commanders, one for the areas of Baghdad west of the Tigris
    River, the other for districts to the east.

    Still, the new command structure seemed rife with potential for
    conflict. An American military official said that the arrangements
    appeared unwieldy, and at odds with military doctrine calling for
    a clear chain of command. “There’s no military definition
    for ‘partnered,’ ” he said.

    Along with those problems, the Americans cite logistical issues
    that must be solved before the new plan can begin to work. Intent
    on using the large numbers of additional American and Iraqi troops
    that have been pledged to the plan to get “boots on the ground”
    across Baghdad, they are planning to establish perhaps 30 or
    40 “joint security sites” spread across nine new military districts
    in the capital, many in police stations that have been among the
    most frequent targets in the war.

    But in many areas, there are no police stations, at least none suitable
    as operational centers, so the planners are seeking alternate locations,
    including large houses, that will have to be fortified with 15-foot-high
    concrete blast walls, rolls of barbed wire and machine-gun towers.

    There are no solutions yet to longstanding problems like who — the
    American forces, or the Iraqis’ own anemic logistics system — will
    supply the fuel required to keep Iraqi Humvees and troop-carrying
    trucks running, at a time when the American supply chain will face
    new strains in supporting thousands of additional American troops.

    The plan gives a central role to the National Police, viewed as widely
    infiltrated by Shiite militias and, despite an intensive American retraining
    program, still suspected of a strongly Shiite sectarian bias. One American
    officer said that the National Police commanders have been “dragging
    their feet” over their role in the new plan and that they could seriously
    compromise the operation.

    Against those concerns, American officers cite several factors they
    believe will lend impetus to the new offensive. The five additional
    brigades of American troops committed by President Bush —
    approximately 21,500 American soldiers, about 80 percent of them
    to be deployed in Baghdad — will roughly triple the numbers of American
    soldiers available for ground operations, as a relatively small proportion
    of the new troop strength will be needed for “force protection,” the
    military term for troops who safeguard bases and ensure the safety
    of other soldiers.

    Since the resignation of former Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld
    after the November elections, American commanders here have been
    more candid in acknowledging something Mr. Rumsfeld often disputed:
    that the commanders have had to play shell games with thinly stretched
    troops, and that many crucial operations, including previous attempts
    to secure Baghdad, have failed because troops have often been moved
    on to other operations, allowing insurgents and militia groups to retake
    areas vacated by the Americans. The new plan, the Americans say, will
    go a long way toward redressing that problem, at least in Baghdad.

    Another positive cited by American officers is the appointment by
    President Bush of Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus as the new overall American
    commander in Iraq, succeeding Gen. George W. Casey Jr., who will leave
    next month after more 30 months in command of the war. General
    Petraeus, who has already completed two 12-month tours in Iraq, has
    a reputation among officers who have served under him as an imaginative
    commander who enlists strong loyalties among his troops.

    Many officers interviewed for this article said they still believed the
    tide of the war here can be reversed, with the additional troops, the
    focus on regaining control of Baghdad and the more consistent military
    strategy they said they expected from General Petraeus. The 54-year-
    old native of upstate New York, a marathon runner, will come to Baghdad
    after overseeing the Army’s reworking of its counterinsurgency manual,
    parts of which he redrafted himself.

    American officials in Baghdad and Washington have said that they
    have limited time — perhaps no more than six to nine months — to
    show gains from the new American push before popular support erodes
    still further and the onset of the 2008 presidential campaign leads
    American politicians to push harder for a troop withdrawal. There are
    also questions of how long the overstretched American military can
    sustain the stepped-up presence here.

    Together, those factors have thrust American military planners into
    the equivalent of a two-minute drill, trying to develop a plan that
    will yield rapid gains in regaining control of Baghdad neighborhoods
    that have slipped into near-anarchy as Sunni insurgents and Shiite
    death squads have run rampant. While American officers are confident
    the additional troops will make a major impact, they worry about what
    will happen when the American troop commitment is scaled down
    again, and Iraqi troops are left facing the main burden of patrolling
    the city.

    That prospect raises the specter of repeating what has happened
    on several other occasions in Baghdad: Americans clearing
    neighborhoods house-by-house, only for insurgents and militiamen
    to reappear when Iraqi security forces take over from the Americans
    and prove incapable of holding the ground, or compliant with the
    marauding gunmen. That was the pattern with Operation Together
    Forward, the last effort to secure Baghdad, which began with an
    additional 7,000 American troops over the summer, and effectively
    abandoned within two months when Iraqi troops failed to hold
    areas the Americans handed over to them.

    Another concern is that the target of the new Baghdad plan —
    Sunni and Shiite extremists — may replicate the pattern American
    troops have seen before when they have embarked on major
    offensives — of “melting away” only to return later. Some officers
    report scattered indications that some Shiite militiamen may already
    be heading for safer havens in southern Iraq, calculating that they
    can wait the new offensive out before returning to the capital.

    “This is an enemy that will trade space for time,” one officer said.

    Shiite neighborhoods present special challenges. Tightly woven
    networks of militias backed by the government, the areas have
    been largely off-limits to American forces. An early test will be
    Sadr City, the largest Shiite enclave in the capital, and the main
    stronghold for the Mahdi Army militia, led by the renegade cleric,
    Moktada al-Sadr. American officers say it is far from clear that the
    Maliki government will permit American troops to operate freely
    in the enclave.

    The number of Americans to be based at the new joint security
    centers is another matter under debate. At a minimum, according
    to officers involved in the planning, there will be an American platoon,
    about 30 to 40 troops, working from each new center, with another
    platoon patrolling nearby, serving as both a quick reaction force to
    quell any surge of violence in the area and also to protect the
    Americans stationed with the Iraqis.

    That places American soldiers directly in neighborhoods where, until
    now, they have appeared only transiently on patrols and raids. Under
    the new plan, they will work closely with the Iraqi Army and police in
    an attempt to establish a trust that has been elusive. The approach
    has been modeled on a successful American campaign effort
    18 months ago in Tal Afar, a northern city that saw dramatic drops
    in violence and is now regarded as one of the few success stories
    of the American campaign.

    The Tal Afar strategy was developed by Col. H. R. McMaster,
    commander of the Third Armored Cavalry Regiment at the time.
    Colonel McMaster, who is widely regarded within the Army as one
    of its most creative counterinsurgency thinker, as well as something
    of a maverick, has been involved in Pentagon planning for the new
    Baghdad operation. But unlike Tal Afar, Baghdad is at the heart
    of the country, with nearly a quarter of Iraq’s population, and
    American officers say that success here will be far more complex
    than in the operation masterminded by Colonel McMaster.

    Another senior officer involved in developing the new plan said that
    the new crackdown would have been much easier to implement
    if it had been adopted earlier. He said that when he returned to
    Iraq for a second tour in the fall, he was shocked to see how far
    the American war effort had regressed, something he attributed
    to muddled strategy. “When I got back three months ago, the
    hodge-podge called Baghdad was like a Rubik’s cube gone
    awry,” he said.

    In embattled West Baghdad, the plan is to place the new security
    centers squarely where the sectarian fighting has been fiercest.
    One of the first centers expected to begin operating is in Ghazaliya,
    a Sunni enclave that has repeatedly come under assault from
    Shiite militias.

    That seems certain to pose early on the central question that
    confronts American commanders as they start the plan: will
    the Maliki government agree to operations aimed at Shiite
    extremists, or resist them and push for the focus to be laid
    on Sunni extremists attacking Shiite areas?

    American officers say that only time will tell, but that they will
    be surprised if Mr. Maliki and his top aides change colors,
    despite the assurances the Iraqi leader is said to have offered
    President Bush. As described by American commanders, the
    pattern in the eight months since Mr. Maliki took office has
    been for the Shiite leaders who dominate the new government
    to press the Americans to concentrate on Sunni extremists.

    The argument is that Shiite death squads, which have accounted
    for an almost equal number of deaths, are engaged in retaliatory
    attacks, and that those will cease when the Sunni groups
    are rooted out.

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    8) Opening a New Front in the War, Against Iranians in Iraq
    News Analysis
    By DAVID E. SANGER
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/washington/politicsspecial/15strategy.html

    WASHINGTON, Jan. 14 — For more than two years after Saddam
    Hussein’s fall, the war in Iraq was about chasing down insurgents
    and Al Qaeda in Iraq. Last year it expanded to tamping down
    sectarian warfare.

    Over the past three weeks, in two sets of raids and newly disclosed
    orders issued by President Bush, a third front has opened —
    against Iran.

    Administration officials say the goal is limited to preventing
    Iranians from aiding in attacks on American and Iraqi forces inside
    Iraq. But in recent interviews and public statements, senior members
    of the Bush administration have made it clear that their agenda
    goes significantly further, toward foiling Iran’s dream of emerging
    as the greatest power in the Middle East.

    In an interview on Friday, before she left on her latest Middle East
    trip, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described what she called
    an “evolving” strategy to confront “destabilizing behavior” by Iran
    across the region. Mr. Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen
    J. Hadley, said Sunday on the NBC News program “Meet the Press”
    that the United States was resisting an Iranian effort “to basically
    establish hegemony” throughout the region.

    Even some of Mr. Bush’s fiercest critics do not question that the
    administration’s conviction that Iran’s ambitions are large is correct.
    A few midlevel administration officials wondered even in 2003 whether
    Iran was a far more potent threat than Mr. Hussein.

    Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, administration officials argued
    that deposing Mr. Hussein would send a powerful signal to Iran
    and North Korea, the two countries that Mr. Bush identified along
    with Iraq in his 2002 State of the Union address as part
    of an “axis of evil.”

    “You heard this argument in meetings all the time,” a senior
    official on the National Security Council, who has since left the
    administration, recalled recently. “Iraq would make the harder
    problems of Iran and North Korea easier.”

    But the opposite happened. North Korea tested a nuclear device
    in October. And Iran has sped ahead with a uranium enrichment
    program.


    Now, despite the urging of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group
    to engage with Iran, Washington is moving in a more
    confrontational direction. It is stationing more naval, air and
    antimissile batteries off Iran’s coast; has persuaded many
    international businesses to cut off dealings with Iran; and
    it has interfered with Iranians inside Iraqi territory.

    “The administration does have Iran on the brain, and I think they
    are exaggerating the amount of Iranian activities in Iraq,” Kenneth
    M. Pollack, the director of research at the Saban Center at the
    Brookings Institution, said Sunday. “There’s a good chance that
    this is going to be counterproductive — that this is a way to get
    into a spiral with Iran that leads you into conflict. The likely
    response from the Iranians is that they are going to want to
    demonstrate to us that they are not going to be pushed around.”

    Administration officials say ignoring Iran’s activities will only lead
    to escalation with the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
    “There’s no question that everything that has gone wrong in Iraq has
    made life easier for the Iranians,” one senior White House official
    said recently. “The question is what you do about that.”

    The answer, shaped in the National Security Council, is for the
    American military to make targets of Iranians whom they believe
    are fueling attacks, a decision that Mr. Bush made months ago
    that was disclosed only last week.

    At least twice in the last month, in raids in Iraq that have infuriated
    officials there, American soldiers have detained Iranians. On Sunday,
    Iraq’s foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, called for the release
    of five Iranians taken in the most recent raid, which occurred
    early on Thursday in Erbil. On CNN’s “Late Edition,” he said that
    while the five were members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,
    the group “in fact is part of the Iranian political system.”

    The potential strategic split with the Iraqi government over how
    to handle the Iranians is only one of the questions raised by
    Washington’s new approach. First among them is whether the
    effort will stop at Iran’s borders. In Congressional testimony,
    Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates has said that he sees
    no need to enter Iranian territory.

    Yet American officials have been careful not to rule out the
    possibility of American actions inside Iran. Pressed on the
    ABC News program “This Week” on Sunday about excluding
    the option of going after Iranians inside Iran, Mr. Hadley said
    that for now, Iraq was “the best place” for the United States
    to take on the Iranians.

    “So, you don’t believe you have the authority to go into Iran?”
    the host, George Stephanopoulos, asked.

    “I didn’t say that,” Mr. Hadley responded. “This is another issue.
    Any time you have questions about crossing international borders,
    there are legal issues.”

    A second question is whether Mr. Bush will step up covert as
    well as overt efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program. So far, the
    evidence collected by the International Atomic Energy Agency
    suggests that Iran’s nuclear efforts have run into technical
    obstacles, but concerns remain that inspectors are missing
    secret facilities. A third question is what Washington would
    do if the Iranians looked for ways to strike back.

    Escalating tensions are the fear of American allies in the region,
    who worry about Iran, but worry more about provoking it.

    On Sunday, Vice President Dick Cheney argued that America’s
    actions were intended to protect allies in the Persian Gulf —
    though it is far from clear that Iran’s Sunni Arab neighbors have
    signed on to the strategy. “If you go and talk with the gulf states
    or if you talk with the Saudis or if you talk about the Israelis
    or the Jordanians, the entire region is worried,” Mr. Cheney
    said on “Fox News Sunday.” He described how the Iranians
    “sit astride the Straits of Hormuz” and its oil-shipping channels,
    and how they support Hamas and Hezbollah.

    “So the threat that Iran represents is growing,” he said, in words
    reminiscent of how he once built a case against Mr. Hussein.
    “It’s multidimensional, and it is, in fact, of concern to everybody
    in the region.”

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    9) New York Rabbi Finds Friends in Iran and Enemies at Home
    By FERNANDA SANTOS
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/nyregion/15rabbi.html?ref=nyregion

    MONSEY, N.Y. — It was a bizarre sight: a cadre of Orthodox Jews,
    with their distinctive hats, beards and sidelocks, standing alongside
    President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran last month at a conference
    in Tehran debating the Holocaust.

    Among them was Rabbi Yisroel Dovid Weiss, spokesman and assistant
    director of a small anti-Zionist group with a foothold in this town
    in Rockland County, home to one of the nation’s largest communities
    of Hasidic Jews.

    Unlike Mr. Ahmadinejad and most of the others present, including
    the former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke, Rabbi Weiss does not
    deny or question the Holocaust; his grandparents died at Auschwitz,
    as did several of his aunts and uncles, he said. What he and the Iranian
    president have in common, he explained, is their belief that the Holocaust
    has been exploited to justify the existence of Israel.

    “We went to Iran because we had to let the world know, especially the
    Arab world and the Muslim world, that we are not their enemies,” he said
    in an interview, a Palestinian flag with the phrase “A Jew Not a Zionist,”
    written in Hebrew, English and Arabic pinned to the lapel of his coat.
    Below the Palestinian flag was an Israeli flag with a red line across it.

    Rabbi Weiss and four other members of his group, Neturei Karta, received
    a warm reception in Iran, he said, dining with state officials and posing
    for photographs with Mr. Ahmadinejad, whom Rabbi Weiss had met
    at least twice before.

    Back home, Rabbi Weiss and the others were met with anger and scorn.
    Since their return, they have been ostracized by synagogues, denied
    service at kosher stores and vilified in Jewish discussion boards
    on the Web. Posters have surfaced in the Satmar Hasidic enclaves
    of Brooklyn, calling the members of Neturei Karta “rebels” and
    “outcasts” and asking Orthodox Jews to “totally cut off ties with
    this gang.”

    On Jan. 7, about 300 people, most of them Orthodox Jews, including
    several Holocaust survivors, protested outside Neturei Karta’s base
    on Saddle River Road here, chanting and holding signs that read,
    “Neturei Crackpots, Leave Monsey.” A much smaller contingent of
    Rabbi Weiss’s supporters held a counterprotest nearby.

    “In some ways, I feel odd; this is about Jew against Jew, after all,” said
    one of the protesters, Rabbi Herbert W. Bomzer, a professor of Talmudic
    law at Yeshiva University and the president of the rabbinical board
    of Flatbush, which represents about 200,000 Orthodox Jews who
    live in Brooklyn. “But to join together and shake hands with the
    mad leader of Iran is unacceptable.”

    He added, “If you shake hands with a Holocaust denier, you’re
    on his team.”

    Mordechai Levy, the national director of the Jewish Defense
    Organization, a militant group that helped organize the protest,
    said other demonstrations were being planned, with the goal
    of “running Neturei Karta out of town and out of America.”

    Founded in the 1930s to counter the Zionist movement in what
    was then Palestine, Neturei Karta, which translates to “guardians
    of the city” in the ancient language Aramaic, has a few thousand
    members — in New York, the United Kingdom, Canada and in Jewish
    settlements in the West Bank, among other places. They believe that
    according to the Torah, Jews were exiled from Israel because they
    sinned and that God has forbidden the formation of a Jewish state
    until the Messiah arrives.

    Many Jews who back the state of Israel abhor the group, and even
    ultra-Orthodox Jews who share its theological views have distanced
    themselves from Neturei Karta because of its vocal support
    of Middle Eastern leaders like Mr. Ahmadinejad, who has
    expressed in numerous pronouncements his disdain for Jews.

    “I think they’re crazy,” said Ed Devir, founder of the online newsletter
    MonseyNY.com and chief executive of HireIsrael.com, a nonprofit
    group that finds technical jobs for United States citizens living in Israel.
    Mr. Devir said he supports the state of Israel. “For too long, we tried
    to ignore them, but that was a big mistake.

    “Everyone knows that they’re a joke,” Mr. Devir added. “But the bottom
    line is, they support groups that want to kill Jews.”

    Rabbi Weiss, 54, grew up in the Orthodox neighborhood of Borough
    Park, Brooklyn, the son of Hungarians who fled Eastern Europe before
    Hitler’s troops closed its borders to Jews. He married 18 years ago
    and has six children. The family moved to Monsey seven years ago,
    solidifying Neturei Karta’s presence in the town.

    During the group’s first trip to Tehran, last March, Rabbi Weiss released
    a statement to Iran’s official IRIB radio in defense of Mr. Ahmadinejad,
    saying that “it is dangerous deviation to pretend that the Iranian president
    is anti-Jewish and anti-Semitic.” Rabbi Weiss also met with Mr. Ahmadinejad
    when he visited New York last year to speak to the United Nations
    General Assembly.

    “He is extremely friendly and he understands the difference between
    the Zionists and the Jews who do not embrace the state of Israel,”
    Rabbi Weiss said in an interview last week.

    “We don’t look at him as an enemy,” he said. “But is he a potential
    enemy? Well, every person who continues to be incited is one, but even
    when we’re dealing with an enemy, we’re supposed to approach
    them with dialogue and try to placate them. Aggression is not
    going to be successful.”

    Rabbi Weiss and his group are no stranger to controversy. He traveled
    to France in October 2004 to take flowers to the ailing Palestinian
    leader Yasser Arafat, who died the next month. In the past, Neturei
    Karta members have attended the annual Salute to Israel parade
    in Manhattan, burning the Israeli flag and holding signs with messages
    like “Authentic Jews will never recognize the state of Israel”
    and “Israel is a cancer for Jews.”

    About 200 people protested outside the Park House Hotel in
    Borough Park late Saturday, demanding the departure of one
    of its guests, Moshe Ayre Friedman, Neturei Karta’s leader in
    Austria and one of the participants at the conference in Iran.
    Mr. Friedman, who at the conference questioned the number
    of deaths during the Holocaust, left the hotel under police escort.

    “We’re constantly disparaged, belittled, but we’re the ones trying
    to make peace with the Arabs,” Rabbi Weiss said. “But we don’t
    look at the Zionists with animosity. We just wished they would
    give us a chance.”

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    10) Endgame:
    The Biggest Police Operation in U.S. History
    by Richard D. Vogel
    January 15, 2007
    [A detailed map is also at this site...bw]
    http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/vogel150107.html

    The recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids that
    paralyzed Swift and Company across the heartland of America were
    part of Endgame, a massive immigration enforcement operation launched
    by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2003. Ultimately,
    it promises to be the biggest police operation in U.S. history. The
    stated objective of Endgame is to "remove all removable aliens"
    from the U.S. by the year 2012.

    This DHS goal could eventually entail the arrest, detention, and
    deportation of 12-15 million undocumented migrants, mostly
    Mexicans and Central Americans, currently residing and working
    in the U.S. Once Endgame is in full swing and receives mass media
    coverage, the intimidation effect will likely spark substantial voluntary
    repatriation and significantly reduce the number of police actions
    required to execute the operation.

    Though the stated objective of Endgame is clear enough, the hidden
    agenda of the operation remains officially undeclared -- that agenda
    is to capture the undocumented migrants working in the U.S. and
    recruit serviceable individuals in a so-called "guest worker" program
    that will reduce them to a condition of transient servitude and further
    undercut the value of all labor in the U.S.

    The historical precedent of Endgame is Operation Wetback, the forced
    deportation campaign that was conducted by the U.S. Border Patrol
    against Mexican migrants during the 1950s. Though the operations
    are separated by over a half a century in time, the economic goals of
    both are essentially the same -- to capture desirable workers in
    servitude and deport the rest.

    The scope of the current labor scheme, however, eclipses that of its
    predecessor. In the 1950s, the bilateral Bracero Agreement was used
    primarily to secure cheap Mexican labor to work in the fields of the
    American Southwest; this time, the pending national guest worker
    program will be used to recruit low-cost labor from south of the
    border to serve all sectors of the U.S. economy.

    The infrastructure that will be needed to execute Endgame is already
    in place or under development.

    The locations of the DROs at Miami, Guantanamo Bay, and Aquadilla
    suggest that they will be used to process migrant workers from Central
    America and the Caribbean.

    In addition to infrastructure development, ICE is currently recruiting
    and training the substantial manpower that will be required for the
    execution of Endgame at the various Federal Law Enforcement
    Training Centers (FLETC) located primarily in the American South
    and Southwest.

    The current training and equipping of ICE reflect the increasing
    militarization of U.S. immigration policy. While the U.S. Border
    Patrol was reorganized along military lines and outfitted in smart
    military style uniforms in preparation for Operation Wetback, ICE
    conducts its operations as special forces units, dressed in black
    uniforms and armed with state-of-the-art assault weapons.

    The immigration reform proposals that embrace a guest worker
    program pending in the U.S. Congress accommodate the expansion
    of U.S. Border Patrol, ICE, and DRO facilities needed to enforce the
    program. (For a full discussion of the pending U.S. guest worker
    program and its ramifications see: Richard D. Vogel, "Transient
    Servitude: The U.S. Guest Worker Program for Exploiting Mexican
    and Central American Workers," Monthly Review, January 2007
    at:

    http://www.monthlyreview.org/0107vogel.htm

    The need for the militarization of U.S. society for security reasons
    is a legitimate issue open to political debate. However, the exploitation
    of the issue of homeland security as a cover to impose an unacceptable
    guest worker program on the nation is a different matter.

    The legitimization of mass transient servitude in the U.S. will degrade
    the position of all working people in the U.S. vis-à-vis monopoly
    capital and must be confronted before it becomes entrenched
    in the national economy.

    The future of free labor is jeopardized in any nation that embraces
    transient servitude.

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    11) Worried about war, LI parents restrict access to recruiters
    BY DENISE M. BONILLA
    Newsday Staff Writer
    January 15, 2007
    http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-enskul0114,0,7612715.story?coll=ny-top-headlines

    At Lindenhurst High School, a military recruiter showed up at a faculty
    meeting with refreshments in hand and an offer to help teachers
    in their classrooms.

    At Bellport High School, during homecoming, the Army tossed tiny
    footballs emblazoned with the words "Go Army" into the crowd.

    At Hauppauge High School, a Marine recruiter set up a table in the
    cafeteria and chatted with students during lunch.

    A high school is a military recruiter's dream, a centralized location
    of hundreds of potential enlistees eager to find their paths in life.
    But as the war in Iraq nears its fourth anniversary, some Long Island
    parents have begun voicing concern over recruiter access to their
    children, and schools have started to tighten their grip.

    "A 15- or 16-year-old shouldn't be spoken to regarding their
    future without their parents there," said Patchogue-Medford High
    School principal Manuel Sanzone.

    Sanzone said recruiters have never had unrestricted access to his
    school, but that recent parental concern has led to a new, stricter
    policy this year limiting recruiters to only two evenings on campus
    a year, during college and career nights.

    Marine school visits are not random. On the walls of the Smithtown
    Marine Corps station hangs a giant map dotted with the locations
    of high schools and colleges, along with a tally of male seniors.
    Recruiters look for enlistees at football games and wrestling
    matches. They stop by pizza parlors, arcades or any other popular
    student hangouts. Recruiters also attend rock concerts or look
    for new recruits at the beach, where they hold competitions
    with free military-inscribed trinkets as prizes.

    The Army offers a complete high school recruiting handbook with
    a month-by-month guideline. Recruiters are encouraged to attend
    school activities, eat lunch in the cafeteria often, deliver donuts
    and coffee to faculty and assist coaches and summer school
    teachers. "Be so helpful and so much a part of the school scene
    that you are in constant demand," the 2004 handbook advises.
    "Remember, first to contact, first to contract ... that doesn't
    just mean seniors or grads. It means having the Army perceived
    as a positive career choice as soon as young people begin
    to think about the future. If you wait until they're seniors,
    it's probably too late."

    The 2002 No Child Left Behind Act requires high schools to provide
    the military with contact information for seniors or risk losing
    federal funding. A national opt-out form is available, but
    participation varies among schools, and counter-recruiters have
    begun asking districts to make the forms more readily available.
    In a court settlement with the NYCLU last week, the Department
    of Defense agreed to change some methods of recruiting --
    such as collecting student Social Security numbers.

    Recruiter access to high schools on Long Island varies widely
    by district. Some high schools -- such as Bellport and South Side
    High School in Rockville Centre -- limit their presence to college
    fairs and career nights and scheduled one-on-one meetings with
    interested students in the guidance office. Others give more access.
    At Hauppauge, recruiters are allowed to set up a table in the
    cafeteria once a month and talk with students during lunch
    periods.

    Limits on recruiting

    At Brentwood High School, which has seen four former students
    killed in Iraq or Afghanistan, recruiters can't eat lunch in the cafeteria,
    pull students out of class or talk to students in the hallways, according
    to Principal Thomas O'Brien, citing a longstanding policy.

    "Why does it seem to be a more acceptable career option in
    Brentwood than in Roslyn?" he asked. "In a working-class community
    like Brentwood, [the salary and college money] is certainly something
    that sweetens the deal."

    Counter-recruiters have asked for equal time in the schools to give
    presentations about the dangers of war and ways to obtain money
    for college that doesn't involve the military. "We're not trying to
    get recruiters out of the schools," said Moriches mom Karen
    Sackett. "But we feel kids should join the military with knowledge
    and understanding of what they're getting themselves into."

    Sackett began her efforts two years ago, after she opened her
    front door one day to find two Navy officers in their dress whites
    asking to speak to her 14-year-old son, Richard. The next day,
    her 16-year-old daughter, Sara, was at Smith Point Beach when
    her mother said she was approached by recruiters who told her
    she could have a singing career in the military.

    The group, which includes members of the Long Island chapters
    of Veterans for Peace and Pax Christi, the international Catholic
    peace organization, is also trying to form a speakers' bureau.
    The veterans said they want to talk to students about their
    experiences in war and warn them they may not get all benefits
    promised by recruiters.

    "We want to come and inform them of what we perceive to be
    the truth from our experiences," said Vietnam War veteran Mac
    Bica, of Smithtown. "Then we say, 'OK, now you have all of this
    material, you decide what you want to do.'"

    New York State Council of School Superintendents chief Bob
    Lowry said districts are reluctant to let anti-war groups on
    campus to make presentations out of concerns over politics.
    For some parents, even a JROTC program is considered a military
    influence and a tool for recruitment, even though federal
    guidelines forbid using the program for such goals.

    Lindenhurst High School principal Dan Giordano said only
    a handful of about 600 seniors enlist every year, and only
    some come from their Marine JROTC program.

    The good and the bad

    Maj. James Sureau, instructor of the JROTC program, said
    that when students approach him about enlisting, he tries
    to show the benefits and dangers of military life. "For some
    of these kids, it changes their entire life," he said. "But I don't
    want to go to any funerals of my kids."

    Lindenhurst faculty ate the donuts, but didn't accept the Army
    recruiter's offer to help in the classroom. And Bellport principal
    Lois Etzel got wind of some complaints over the Army's presence
    at homecoming. She said they have always taken part, and like
    other groups in the community, were invited. "There are commercials
    on TV, too," Etzel said. "It's not like we're making students
    sit at the table and sign recruitment papers."

    Recruiters can only meet with students if the student arranges
    the meeting, and it must be held in the guidance office, Etzel said.
    About a dozen students enlist each year out of a senior class
    of roughly 300.

    Many school officials around Long Island said recruiters, while
    persistent, are respectful of limitations. "They do a really good job
    in pushing kids to go to class and graduate," said Ben Baglio, interim
    chairman of guidance at Brentwood High School.
    Copyright 2007 Newsday Inc.

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    12) The Smithfield Strike Victory
    By The Editors of Socialist Viewpoint Magazine
    http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/

    It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the strike victory by
    the more than 5,000 workers employed by Smithfield Corporation, at its
    meatpacking plant in Tar Heel, North Carolina—the largest hog-slaughterhouse
    and processing plant in the world.

    The strike erupted on November 16 and ended on the morning of the 17th, when
    the company asked for a meeting and made important concessions to strikers’
    demands. The ramifications of this stunning victory go far beyond this one
    plant, one company, one industry, or one small part of the American working
    class.

    Highlighting the extraordinary importance of this walkout is the unusual
    reason why they walked—to demand that Smithfield’s bosses reinstate over 75
    allegedly undocumented workers. No less remarkably, 1,000 of the company’s
    5,000 workers, 60 percent of whom are immigrants and 30 percent Black, along
    with the white minority, stuck together and forced Smithfield bosses to
    reinstate those fired—and to make further concessions as well. Here are the
    most important:

    • The Company agreed to reinstate those workers who had been fired.
    • There is to be no more firing.
    • No disciplinary actions of any kind will be taken against those employees
    who participated in the walkout.

    And to top off their acceptance of the first three demands of the strikers:

    •Smithfield also agreed to meet with a 14-member committee, to be elected by
    the workers on the basis of one from each of the 14 departments on both
    shifts, to deal with “concerns” raised by the workers—a diplomat’s euphemism
    for the 12-year-long struggle for better wages and working conditions, union
    representation, and an end to the dangerously inhuman pace at which
    employees are compelled to work.

    Although these concessions testify to the intrinsic power of organized
    workers to force their employers to come to terms, the big issues for which
    these workers struck—wages, hours, safer working conditions, and their
    longstanding demand for a union contract—have yet to be resolved.

    Even so, striking workers have profoundly shifted the balance of power from
    Smithfield bosses to these newly empowered workers. The latter had twice
    filed petitions with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) for union
    certification elections, once in 1994 and again in 1997, and lost both
    elections. But only because Smithfield fired, harassed, and beat up enough
    union supporters to edge out a majority vote against the union.
    But workers learned a valuable lesson from the first two attempts.
    Consequently, on their third try, they decided to follow the old-fashioned,
    direct-action route to union organization by marching and picketing outside
    instead of working inside.

    Moreover, they were able to keep secret their planned action long enough to
    catch their bosses by surprise with the sudden appearance of 500 chanting
    and marching militant pickets outside, and that many fewer workers inside to
    begin the slaughtering and processing of more than 30,000 hogs in the next
    24 hours. When the second shift arrived, another 500 workers joined the
    marching pickets.

    But this part of the strike scenario needs to be explained for the reader to
    fully appreciate its impact on Smithfield’s bottom line.

    Surprise, of course, is an important factor in wars between nations and
    classes—and a strike is, indeed, class battle. In this case, because the
    logistics of planning such a complex operation involving 30,000 pigs and
    5,000 packinghouse workers, and the scores of trucks and drivers needed to
    transport the finished product to their varied destinations around the
    country, means that the surprise and impact of 1,000 missing workers caused
    far more than a loss of only one-fifth of production on the first day. More
    worrisome yet to Smithfield management is the uncertainty of how many
    workers will show up on following days.

    This is the equivalent of strikers throwing a legal “monkey wrench” into a
    very complicated machine with thousands of moving parts.

    Now, no matter how this battle turns out in the end, Smithfield strikers
    learned two lessons that they are not likely to forget and that will greatly
    improve their effectiveness in the months and years to come. They learned
    that workers can only get what they’re strong enough to take.

    But let’s take a closer look at why direct action by the workers themselves
    is a far better road to follow than relying on an election organized and
    controlled by the indisputably pro-capitalist, anti-worker government of the
    United States.

    What you can get from direct action that you can’t get from an NLRB election

    Winning union recognition via direct action has two big advantages over a
    government organized and controlled election. First, bosses can steal such
    an election, but they can’t steal a victory over a strike—they have to
    overpower and crush striking workers and their strike! The fact that the
    company didn’t try to do this demonstrates that they had reason to believe
    that the strike would continue snowballing when the time came for each
    subsequent shift to come to work.

    And second, if workers win a National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) election,
    the employer is compelled only to go through the motions of negotiating a
    final settlement. But it is under no compulsion to make anything more than
    token concessions to prove that it is indeed negotiating.

    But by winning the right to collectively bargain over wages, hours, and
    working conditions by strike action, workers have also gone more than
    halfway toward winning an acceptable labor contract. They have forced a
    reluctant employer to recognize their union by hitting them hard where it
    hurts most—in the pocketbook. The union also has sent a convincing message
    that now, with the confidence gained by their first strike victory under
    their belts, workers are sure to fight longer and harder for the kind of
    contract they think they deserve and can get.

    Smithfield strikers are now in a stronger position than if they had filed
    for and won an NLRB election. Nevertheless, they still have not yet achieved
    their goal of improved wages, benefits, and significantly safer working
    conditions. In other words, though they have convinced Smithfield bosses
    that these seemingly powerless workers are a force to be feared and
    respected, the final outcome of this struggle still hangs in the balance.
    However, Smithfield Corporation and its workforce are not the only
    combatants. Also intimately involved in this struggle is capitalist America
    on one side, and working-class America on the other. Therefore, which way
    the struggle in Smithfield’s Tar Heel plant goes, for or against its
    rebellious workforce, depends to a great extent on how capitalist America
    and its government on one side, and the U.S. working class and its unions on
    the other, respond to the challenge.

    The capitalist government counterattacks

    Not quite a month had passed before the inevitable happened. As Smithfield
    bosses had confidently expected, the U.S. government came to their rescue.
    On December 12, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff retaliated
    against Smithfield’s striking workers and the United Food and Commercial
    Workers International Union (UFCW), whose organizers had helped them
    coordinate their strike. Chertoff launched simultaneous dawn raids on six
    Swift & Company meatpacking plants, in six states—all of which were under
    contract with the UFCW.

    The federal government’s Homeland Security cops swept across the six plants,
    arresting nearly 1,300 UFCW members on the charge of illegally living and
    working in the United States. To further demonize these workers in the eyes
    of the public, he charged them with having stolen the identities of American
    citizens. But nothing was stolen. Because undocumented workers are unable to
    get real Social Security numbers, all they need to do when applying for work
    is to simply put down a fictitious nine-digit number. Thus, some of these
    fake numbers coincided with real Social Security numbers owned by real
    people. But nothing is stolen. In fact, the Social Security and income taxes
    deducted from the paychecks of undocumented workers are automatically
    credited to the real owners of the Social Security numbers.

    But all of this begs the question: How did 11 million undocumented
    immigrants get to be living and working in the USA?

    It all started in 1917 after the United States entered the First World War.
    That’s when the so-called “guest worker” program was first introduced in a
    treaty signed by the Mexican and American governments. Guest workers were a
    brand-new kind of immigrant invited to come live and work in this country,
    but only for a specified time and only for the lowest-paid jobs, mostly in
    agriculture.

    Its temporary nature was the beauty part of this scheme cooked up by your
    typical money-hungry capitalists to create an ever-expanding army of
    superexploited and doubly oppressed workers. This new category of
    third-class workers is an updated version of colonial America’s indentured
    servants. But unlike the originals in the 13 colonies, who gained the right
    to be free workers after serving the required time bonded to their masters,
    the latest version of de facto chattel slaves are obligated to pack up and
    go home, and worse for these church-mouse-poor workers—under their own power
    and at their own expense!

    Just imagine

    Now, picture this: Imagine that you are one of those desperately poor
    workers who had earned minimum wages or below for one or two harvest seasons
    as legal temps. Another employer offers you a job as a now illegalized
    worker—but with no time limit. Remember, too, while you’re imagining, that
    you probably have loved ones in your homeland that depend on you for
    survival, so that a part of your meager wages must of necessity go to them.
    Maybe you were ready to bum your way back home, but someone offers you a job
    as an illegalized worker. Let’s also suppose you ask around to find out what
    happens if you stay and work illegally and get caught. And you are told that
    you might not get arrested for some time or maybe ever—depending on how
    badly the farmers and other employers in the region need cheap and
    trouble-free workers who don’t dare complain to the authorities if they are
    cheated or otherwise mistreated.

    So what would you do if you were in such a pickle? If you knew that if you
    stayed and got caught by the immigration cops you’d be picked up and jailed
    for an uncertain period, but eventually given a free ride home—albeit in
    handcuffs? The odds heavily favor your grabbing the opportunity of a job
    that let you feed yourself and your family for a little while…or even a
    whole lot longer.

    That in a nutshell is how the 11 million undocumented workers got here; and
    it’s how another 11 million will probably get here too, if the present
    rotten setup is allowed to continue.

    Now put yourself in the shoes of one of the many indigenous American workers
    who are competing for the same jobs doing the same kind of work as the 11
    million illegalized workers. Well, if you know your way around trade-union
    and socialist circles, you understand that the intensified competition means
    that the wages of all those taking such jobs will tend to decline, according
    to the capitalist economic law of supply and demand. But you also would know
    that when the average wage of the lowest-paid workers declines, the wages of
    all those higher up on the economic ladder will also fall!

    Let’s now imagine that you find yourself in the shoes of such a worker, who
    is also class conscious and militant—as are a very large number of workers
    born and raised in Mexico or almost any other country south of the border.
    If you were this kind of worker, you would know that workers in practically
    all other countries are far more likely to be class conscious and familiar
    with what the class struggle is all about. Well, in that case, you would
    also know that if workers stick together they can win, and would have
    learned a thing or two about the right and wrong way to organize and fight
    for your rights. You’d probably follow the example set by at least those
    1,000 Smithfield workers in Tar Heel, N.C. who walked and the other 4,000
    who would probably have followed if the bosses hadn’t come to terms after
    the first day.

    Nationalism, class consciousness and the working class

    Now we come to another lesson that can be learned from the recent events in
    Smithfield’s Tar Heel plant. We refer to the Latino immigrant majority and
    the second-largest grouping there, the African American workers—both of whom
    are oppressed nationalities as well as being doubly exploited and oppressed
    members of the working class.

    Not all nationalisms are the same. In fact, the nationalism of the oppressed
    and the nationalism of the oppressor are diametrically opposed. But like the
    slave and the slave owner, the two are organically intertwined. An
    understanding of the interaction between capitalist exploitation and
    oppression is the high road to a deeper understanding of the laws of the
    class struggle in America and the world that were played out in the struggle
    in Tar Heel, N.C.

    It can also be said, however, that there is a difference between how class
    consciousness is perceived by the two oppressed national minorities, African
    and Latin American. While African Americans see their superexploitation and
    oppression as a product of white ideology, Latin American immigrants
    perceive it as just an extreme expression of the class exploitation and
    oppression they experienced in their homeland, where they could clearly see
    it as class-based since they were a part of the ethnic majority and not a
    minority.

    But that’s not all that differentiates the perception of the source of their
    problem by each of these nationalities. Immigrants from south of the border
    could clearly see that they suffered social, economic, and political
    injustices because they were exploited wage workers. Whereas, African
    Americans, who have never been treated as equals by workers with a lighter
    skin color, perceive their problem as racial primarily, and class
    secondarily.

    That’s why it was the Latino workers who initiated and led the workers’
    rebellion in Smithfield’s Tar Heel plant in North Carolina. But it is to the
    credit of black workers that they could empathize with the victimization of
    another superexploited nationality and were among the first to walk out in
    support of a strike to reinstate the 75 fired workers—with many
    union-conscious white workers joining because of class, not nationalist
    solidarity.

    But all this is entirely in accord with the inexorable tendency of working
    people toward class consciousness and class solidarity, irrespective of
    race, religion, or national origin. It happens to be the most reasonable,
    logical, and natural response to the divide-and-conquer strategy and tactics
    of the capitalist class. What’s good for the working class is also in the
    best interests of all the exploited and oppressed—who together constitute as
    much as four-fifths or more of the human race.

    We need to make one more clarification of where we stand on the question of
    nationalism. There’s no qualitative difference between the nationalism of
    the oppressed and the class consciousness of the workers. This is because
    oppressed nationalities are mostly workers and their superexploitation and
    double–oppression generates working-class consciousness. It can also be said
    that the condition of the oppressed in capitalist society is an objective
    force making them more class conscious than the rest of us.

    The outcome of the Smithfield strike inspires an optimistic perspective on
    the coming rise of mass class consciousness and a militant working class
    fighting side by side with Latino, black, and all other victims of
    capitalist social economic and political injustice. This takes us to our
    final question: What needs to be done to maximize the possibilities opened
    up by the Smithfield strike victory?

    ‘The art of politics is knowing what to do next’ 1

    We saw a good example of what a high level of class consciousness and class
    solidarity can produce in the Smithfield strike victory. But we also saw an
    excellent example of capitalist class consciousness and solidarity on the
    part of the “executive committee of the capitalist class,” the capitalist
    owned and controlled United States government!

    But what about the executive committee of the working class—the General
    Executive Boards of both labor federations, the American Federation of
    Labor, and Change to Win. How did they respond? Not at all like their
    counterparts in the ruling class. The leaders of both federations pretty
    much did what the UFCW leadership did when faced by this mortal attack on
    their union. Unlike the leaders of American capitalism, who ordered their
    army of Homeland Security cops into action against their class enemy, the
    workers and their unions, the union officials saw ordering their lawyers to
    seek injunctions from the courts as “what to do next.”

    There’s nothing wrong with using the courts against the system when you can,
    but if that’s all that the official leaders of the American working class
    have done or will do, then they have failed the acid test of working-class
    leadership.

    But it’s not too late. Far from it. The job of the left wing of the economic
    and political institutions of the working class is to get the high and
    mighty leaders of the unions off their hind ends, to do their duty by their
    dues-paying members. That is exactly what United Mine Workers president and
    founding president of the CIO told the official leaders of the AFL and CIO
    when those bureaucrats failed to mobilize the 32 million members of the
    labor movement at the time for mass action against what all agreed at the
    time was the “slave-labor” Taft-Hartley Act.

    To be sure, old John Lewis was a high-handed bureaucrat, but he strongly
    believed in giving union members their money’s worth; and best of all, more
    often than not, he practiced what he preached.

    Who will start building a fire, as hot as possible, under these
    far-too-comfortable and self-satisfied labor fakers who proudly assert their
    partnership with corporate America? There is a force that is fully capable
    of getting such a fire burning, and burning higher and hotter as we go
    along.

    We refer to the tens of thousands of militant trade-union activists, the
    more worker-friendly bureaucrats, and last but not least, the vanguard of
    the working class. They must begin working overtime to establish
    collaborative relations with the rank and file, with the leaders of the
    Latino and black civil-rights movements, and most importantly, with the
    already stirring rank and file that recently fought the good fight inside
    the UAW for a program of class struggle against the ever-increasing
    capitalist offensive.

    1“The art of politics is knowing what to do next.”—James P. Cannon, a
    working-class fighter and leader who had served his apprenticeship in the
    Socialist Party of Eugene V. Debs, the Industrial Workers of the World of
    Big Bill Haywood and Vincent St. John, and later became a founding leader of
    the U.S. Communist Party and a founding leader of the Trotskyist, Socialist
    Workers Party.

    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
    *---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*

    13) Community Work
    By Bonnie Weinstein
    Socialist Viewpoint Magazine
    http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/janfeb_07/janfeb_07_07.html

    I came across an email from the Direct Action & Research Training (DART)
    center—a self-described national network of 21 congregation-based community
    organizations working toward social and economic justice—touting their good
    community work. One paragraph stood out in their appeal in particular. It
    brags about one of their trainees winning a sales-tax increase to fund
    desperately needed healthcare for indigent patients:

    “As a result of her work, the organization won the approval of a permanent
    half-cent sales tax that will provide over $35 million annually to fund one
    new health clinic a year for the next five years and increase indigent
    patients seen from the current 2,000 to 45,000 patients per year.”

    Punishing the victim

    Sorry, but raising taxes on the poor (sales-tax increases) are not the
    solution. In fact, it’s a major part of the problem. It’s the wealthy that
    should be paying their fair share of the taxes. Increasing the sales tax is
    not community service; it’s community shakedown. The poor are told, “You
    must pay more out of your own pocket for all nonfood, necessary items to
    support the meager and insufficient services that will become available!”
    How is that economic justice?

    Cigarettes: The hypocrisy of a regressive tax system

    How is it justice to charge tobacco smokers extra taxes for the poison they
    have been made addicted to? Smokers already are victims of the wholly
    unscrupulous multi-trillion-dollar business of manufacturing, marketing, and
    obscenely profiting off the slaughter and addiction of billions of people
    across the globe.

    During WWII and before, the cigarette companies had huge contracts with the
    government to pack cigarettes into the rations of our troops, ensuring the
    lifelong addiction of tens of millions of men and women. U.S. military bases
    in France at the time were named after the different cigarette companies:
    Camp Old Gold; Camp Chesterfield; Camp Phillip Morris; Camp Herbert
    Tareyton; Camp Home Run; Camp Pall Mall; Camp Lucky Strike; Camp Twenty
    Grand; Camp Wings.

    But it didn’t stop there. At the very start of the TV age, one of the
    tobacco companies—claiming that its cigarettes were “smoother” than
    others-featured a doctor in its ads, wearing a white coat and a stethoscope
    around his neck. And each manufacturer claimed its cigarettes were not
    harmful at all! This wasn’t accidental; it was planned to get masses of
    people puffing away.

    It was during WWII that a big push was made to get more women to smoke. This
    trend had already permeated Hollywood. Nick and Nora Charles of the famous
    “Thin Man” series were never seen without either a cocktail or a cigarette
    in their hands. How many Hollywood leading men had cigarettes as trademarks?
    John Wayne and Humphrey Bogart immediately come to mind. And both died from
    lung cancer, by the way. (And let me point out here that it’s much easier to
    battle lung cancer surrounded by the most skilled medical professionals and
    every luxury money can buy than in a cold tenement or out in the streets
    burdened by years of poverty, receiving minimal healthcare or none at all!)

    Cigarettes were embedded into every aspect of our lives through every form
    of mass communication at the tobacco companies’ disposal—newspapers,
    magazines, and billboards. In movie newsreels and in all the movies and TV
    programs, cigarettes were incorporated as part of normal adult life and
    something to strive for if you were a child. (Born in 1945 I began smoking
    in 1954, when I was nine, and stealing cigarettes from my parents. My
    younger sister set fire to the bathroom curtain when she was sneaking a
    smoke at about the age of 11. When I set out looking for work as a young
    woman of 17, I made sure there were ashtrays around and that I was permitted
    to smoke on the job or I wouldn’t take it. I smoked until sometime in my
    50s.)

    Tobacco industry subsidized by tax dollars

    Today cigarette companies are still getting tax breaks and even in some
    cases being subsidized by the government! A PBS “Online Forum” dated July
    11, 1997, debated an agreement among the attorneys general of 40 states and
    the tobacco companies to go before Congress to “put in place the first truly
    comprehensive nationwide system designed to drive down the number of
    children who become addicted to tobacco products each day, and help adults
    who are already addicted to quit.” The forum described such subsidies and
    how they work:

    “The agreement calls on tobacco companies to: pay billions of dollars for a
    host of public education and health programs; reimburse states for the cost
    of treating tobacco-related illnesses; set aside a multi-billion-dollar fund
    to compensate smokers who win individual lawsuits against the tobacco
    companies; and severely curtail marketing and advertising cigarettes,
    especially to teenagers.... The settlement took months of intensive
    negotiation. The tobacco industry is rich, powerful, and until recently,
    doggedly determined to fight any efforts to reform its marketing tactics. To
    maintain its position, it has even allegedly lied under oath to Congress
    that it was unaware that nicotine is addictive. So, sign the deal?

    “‘Not so fast,’ says Congressman Henry Waxman (D-CA) whose committee leaders
    of the tobacco industry allegedly were lied to during a 1994 House
    investigation. ‘The agreement eliminates class action suits, the state
    lawsuits, and the right of individuals to bring addiction claims; it caps
    what individuals can recover annually,’ wrote Waxman in a recent Washington
    Post article. ‘And it allows the industry to pay for judgments against
    it—including judgments based on future wrongdoing—by reducing its payments
    for child health insurance and other public health needs.’ ... On the
    regulatory side, the settlement gives the industry ‘something equally
    unprecedented: It effectively bars the FDA from regulating the nicotine
    content of cigarettes.’

    “One provision mandates that the industry pay for the settlement by raising
    cigarette prices, not by reducing profits. Another makes all industry
    payments (to states and education programs) tax deductible, in effect
    forcing taxpayers to pick up 35 percent of the costs.”

    Someone else wrote on the same site:

    “‘The Federal government already provides price supports for tobacco. Under
    this agreement,